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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited(TSM) 종목 분석 — 적정가치·리스크·해자 평가

NYQ · Technology · Semiconductors

$387.44 적정 가격 19.36 (5.3%) 기준일 2026년 4월 22일 매매 추천이 아닙니다. 면책 조항 보기.
종합 판정 주의
3.05
Altman Z-Score안전 구간
$370.92
적정가치적정 가격 (-4.5%)
3.4
해자 평가내로우 모트
요약 · 감사 서머리

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited는 지금 안전한 투자처인가?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's Altman Z-Score of 3.05 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $370.92 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.

주가 차트 · TSM
제1장 · 재무 건전성

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited는 파산할 가능성이 있는가? Altman Z-Score 분석

3.05

Z-Score of 3.05 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.

  • 1.8 미만 — 위험 구간(파산 리스크 높음)
  • 1.8~3.0 — 회색 구간(불확실성 높음)
  • 3.0 초과 — 안전 구간(재무 건전)

TSM의 Z-Score를 구성하는 요인은?

TSM Altman Z-Score 구성 요소
구성 요소산식수치가중치기여도
A · Working Capital / Total AssetsWC / TA0.28931.20.35
B · Retained Earnings / Total AssetsRE / TA0.63521.40.89
C · EBIT / Total AssetsEBIT / TA0.25893.30.85
D · Market Cap / Total LiabilitiesMCap / TL0.79220.60.48
E · Revenue / Total AssetsRev / TA0.48021.00.48

TSM의 재무 건전성은 어떻게 변화해 왔는가?

3.0 Safe1.8 Distress0.01.02.03.04.02022202320242025
TSM Z-Score 추이
연도Z-Score구간
20222.8회색
20232.63회색
20242.76회색
20253.05안전

출처: TSM의 SEC EDGAR 최신 10-K 기반 산출.

제2장 · 적정가치 추정

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited의 진정한 가치는 얼마인가?

FVL 적정가치$370.92
vs
시장 가격$387.44
적정 가격 -4.5% Stock trades 4.5% above our estimated fair value of $370.92.

산출 방법

FVL 밸류에이션 모델
입력값수치출처
예상 EPS(α)$13.20독자 모델: 공시 실적값 + 애널리스트 컨센서스(α 가중)
전년도 EPS$11.70연차보고서(SEC EDGAR)
애널리스트 컨센서스 EPS(금년도)$15.4518명의 애널리스트 컨센서스
실적 PER33.1x현재 시장 프라이싱
적정 PER(β 디스카운트)28.1x실적 PER을 가치 디스카운트 계수 β로 조정 후 상한 설정
실적 트렌드(γ)가속 성장방향성 시그널: 예상 EPS와 실적 EPS 비교

월가 참고치: 애널리스트 컨센서스 목표주가는 $463.45(18명의 애널리스트). 참고치이며 당사 밸류에이션 모델에는 사용하지 않습니다.

출처: 실적 데이터는 SEC EDGAR 제출 서류, 시장 데이터는 Yahoo Finance. 최근 분기가 반영되지 않았을 수 있습니다.

제3장 · 경쟁우위(해자)

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited는 지속적인 경쟁우위를 보유하고 있는가?

★★★☆☆
내로우 모트

Moat rating: 3.4/5.

TSM의 해자 점수를 구성하는 요인은?

ROIC Stability

★★★★☆

ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.

Gross Margin Trend

★★★☆☆

Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.

Switching Costs

★★★☆☆

Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.

TSM의 투하자본수익률은 얼마나 안정적인가?

0%-5%6%16%27%37%2022202320242025
TSM ROIC 추이
연도ROIC트렌드
202230.7%
202322.8%Declining
202426.9%Rising
202532.1%Rising

출처: ROIC는 SEC EDGAR 제출 서류 기반 산출.

제4장 · 배당 안전성

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited의 배당은 안전한가?

A 배당 안전성 등급
배당수익률4.6%
배당성향27.9%
연속 증배 연수23
5년 성장률-12.8%

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited는 현재 배당 수준을 유지할 수 있는가?

Payout ratio is 27.9%. FCF covers the dividend 1.8x. 23 consecutive years of payments.

제5장 · 재무 요약

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited의 주요 재무 지표

TSM 재무 요약
지표최신1년 전3년 전트렌드
Revenue $3809.1B $2894.3B $2263.9B Rising
Net Income $1697.6B $1158.4B $992.9B Rising
Free Cash Flow $992.4B $861.2B $521.0B Rising
Gross Margin 59.9% 56.1% 59.6% Stable
제6장 · 랩 시그널

TSM의 분석에 영향을 미치는 최근 이벤트

EARNINGS

TSM 실적 발표 예정

랩 영향도

실적 발표 예정. 컨센서스 EPS 예상치: $3.74. 매출 예상치: $1.26T. 당사의 현재 적정가치: $370.92 — 예상치를 크게 상회하거나 하회하면 추정치가 변동될 수 있습니다.

ANALYST

TSM 애널리스트 컨센서스: 95% 강세 (18/19명)

랩 영향도

6 강력 매수, 12 매수, 1 중립, 0 매도, 0 강력 매도. 컨센서스 목표가: $463.45 (19.6% 상승 여력). 당사 독자 적정가치와 비교: $370.92.

EARNINGS

TSM EPS 예상치 4.7% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $3.49 예상치 $3.33. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $370.92 (4.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

DIVIDEND

TSM 주당 $0.9560 배당금 지급

랩 영향도

배당 안전성 등급: A. 배당성향: 27.9%.

EARNINGS

TSM EPS 예상치 5.5% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $3.14 예상치 $2.98. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $370.92 (4.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

DIVIDEND

TSM 주당 $0.8350 배당금 지급

랩 영향도

배당 안전성 등급: A. 배당성향: 27.9%.

EARNINGS

TSM EPS 예상치 11.2% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $2.92 예상치 $2.63. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $370.92 (4.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

DIVIDEND

TSM 주당 $0.8220 배당금 지급

랩 영향도

배당 안전성 등급: A. 배당성향: 27.9%.

EARNINGS

TSM EPS 예상치 6.8% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $2.47 예상치 $2.31. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $370.92 (4.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

DIVIDEND

TSM 주당 $0.7800 배당금 지급

랩 영향도

배당 안전성 등급: A. 배당성향: 27.9%.

EARNINGS

TSM EPS 예상치 3.2% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $2.12 예상치 $2.05. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $370.92 (4.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

DIVIDEND

TSM 주당 $0.6840 배당금 지급

랩 영향도

배당 안전성 등급: A. 배당성향: 27.9%.

EARNINGS

TSM EPS 예상치 0.7% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $2.24 예상치 $2.22. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $370.92 (4.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

제7장 · 자주 묻는 질문

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited에 대한 자주 묻는 질문

What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited stock price today?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) stock price is $387.44 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.

What does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited do?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, the United States, and internationally. It provides various wafer fabrication processes, such as processes to manufacture complementary metal- oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic, mixed-signal, radio frequency, embedded memory, bipolar CMOS mixed-signal, and others. It also involved in providing customer and engineering support services; manufacturing of masks; investment in technology start-up companies; research, designing, developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and sale of color filters; and investment activities.

What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited market cap?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited has a market capitalization of $2.01T, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Technology sector.

What sector and industry is TSM in?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Semiconductors industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol TSM.

Is TSM stock overvalued or undervalued?

Based on our valuation model, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited trades 4.5% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.

  • FairValueLabs Fair Value: $370.92
  • Current Price: $387.44
  • Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is TSM stock forecast and analyst target price?

Based on 18 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is $463.45, implying upside of 19.6% from the current price.

  • Analyst High Target: $600.00
  • Analyst Low Target: $351.00

Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.

Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited revenue and earnings growing?

Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited:

  • Revenue growth (current year est.): 35.2%
  • EPS growth (current year est.): 45.1%
  • Revenue growth (next year est.): 25.9%
  • EPS growth (next year est.): 24.9%
What are Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's key financial metrics?
MetricLatestTrend
Revenue$3809.1BRising
Net Income$1697.6BRising
Free Cash Flow$992.4BRising
Gross Margin59.9%Stable
What is TSM's P/E ratio?

The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:

  • Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 33.1x
  • Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 20.1x
  • FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 28.1x
How volatile is TSM stock?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited has a beta of 1.25, meaning it is somewhat more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.

How much cash and debt does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited have?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's balance sheet shows:

  • Total Cash: $3.38T
  • Total Debt: $1.02T
  • Net Cash Position: $2.37T

A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.

What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's free cash flow?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited generated $721.56B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.35T in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.

Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited pay a dividend, and is it safe?

Yes, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:

  • Dividend Yield: 4.6%
  • Payout Ratio: 27.9%
  • Consecutive Years Paid: 23
  • 5-Year Dividend Growth: -12.8%
  • FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited at risk of going bankrupt?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's Altman Z-Score is 3.05, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.

Does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited have a durable competitive advantage?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:

  • ROIC Stability: 4/5
  • Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
  • Switching Costs: 3/5

A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.

What is TSM's return on equity (ROE)?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's return on equity is 36.2%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.

How do I buy TSM stock?

TSM shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:

  1. Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
  2. Search for ticker symbol TSM
  3. Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares

This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.

Is TSM a value stock or speculative?

FairValueLabs classifies Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.

Who is the CEO of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?

The current CEO of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is Dr. C. C. Wei Ph.D..

What is TSM's earnings per share (EPS)?

Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:

  • Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $11.70
  • Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $19.29
  • Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $15.45
  • Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $19.29

FairValueLabs 면책 조항

본 페이지의 모든 밸류에이션, 점수, 평가, 분류는 FairValueLabs 독자 밸류에이션 시스템으로 산출된 것입니다. 실제 시장 가치, 수익 보장 또는 전문적인 투자 조언을 의미하지 않습니다. 교육 및 리서치 목적의 분석 추정치입니다.

This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

최종 업데이트: 2026년 4월 22일. 데이터 소스: SEC EDGAR(재무제표), Yahoo Finance(시장 데이터, 애널리스트 컨센서스). 최근 분기 데이터가 반영되지 않았을 수 있습니다.

TSM 분석 방법론: 적정가치, Z-Score, 해자 평가 산출 방법