TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Is TransDigm Group Incorporated a safe investment right now?
Trading at $1,205.67, TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) in the Industrials sector carries a FairValueLabs fair value estimate of $1,140.40 — a margin of safety of -5.7%, placing it in the Fairly Valued. An Altman Z-Score of 1.85 lands in the gray zone, signaling elevated uncertainty around financial health. Our moat rating stands at 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding), indicating moderate competitive positioning.
Could TransDigm Group Incorporated go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.85 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TDG's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2108 | 1.2 | 0.25 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.463 | 1.4 | -0.65 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1834 | 3.3 | 0.61 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.0894 | 0.6 | 1.25 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3855 | 1.0 | 0.39 |
How has TDG's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.55 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.79 | Gray |
| 2024 | 1.81 | Gray |
| 2025 | 1.85 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from TDG's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is TransDigm Group Incorporated actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $32.77 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $32.08 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $39.03 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 41.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 34.8x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $1,537.14 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does TransDigm Group Incorporated have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up TDG's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TDG's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13.8% | — |
| 2023 | 16.2% | Rising |
| 2024 | 18.8% | Rising |
| 2025 | 20.7% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is TransDigm Group Incorporated's dividend safe?
TransDigm Group Incorporated's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.8B | $7.9B | $5.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.1B | $1.7B | $0.9B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.8B | $1.9B | $0.8B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 60.1% | 58.8% | 57.1% | Rising |
Common questions about TransDigm Group Incorporated
Is TransDigm Group Incorporated at risk of going bankrupt?
TransDigm Group Incorporated's Altman Z-Score of 1.85 places it in the gray zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is TransDigm Group Incorporated's estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates TransDigm Group Incorporated's fair value at $1140.40 per share. The current margin of safety is -5.7%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does TransDigm Group Incorporated have a competitive moat?
TransDigm Group Incorporated receives a moat rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does TransDigm Group Incorporated pay a dividend?
TransDigm Group Incorporated does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TDG analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings