Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Waste Management
Is Waste Connections, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Waste Connections, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.03 places it in the safe zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $145.40, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 10%. Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could Waste Connections, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 3.03 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives WCN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0364 | 1.2 | -0.04 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2488 | 1.4 | 0.35 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.069 | 3.3 | 0.23 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.418 | 0.6 | 2.05 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4478 | 1.0 | 0.45 |
How has WCN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 8.45 | Safe |
| 2017 | 4.86 | Safe |
| 2018 | 4.98 | Safe |
| 2019 | 4.82 | Safe |
| 2020 | 4.52 | Safe |
| 2021 | 4.34 | Safe |
| 2022 | 3.96 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.41 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.36 | Safe |
| 2025 | 3.03 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from WCN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Waste Connections, Inc. actually worth?
Fair value range: $46.73 — $198.80
Valuation Methods
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $198.80 | 50% | 40.0x avg PE (4 years) × $4.97 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $122.19 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $1.2B TTM FCF, 8.8% growth, 7.0% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $46.73 | 20% | TTM FCF × 18x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 8.8% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 6.0% | Consensus (25 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 13.1% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 7.1% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 0.61*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-9,100M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $1.2B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 254,847,024 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 7.0% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $73.72 | $54.48 | $89.73 | $39.31 |
| 2.5% | $85.35 | $62.59 | $104.32 | $44.71 |
| 5.0% | $98.69 | $71.86 | $121.08 | $50.84 |
| 7.5% | $116.89 | $84.29 | $144.16 | $58.88 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $0.7B | — |
| 2020 | $0.9B | +22.2% |
| 2021 | $0.9B | +4.7% |
| 2022 | $0.8B | +-10.4% |
| 2023 | $1.0B | +17.6% |
| 2024 | $1.1B | +16.3% |
| 2025 | $1.2B | +7.5% |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Waste Connections, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up WCN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 2/5.
How stable is WCN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 9.2% | — |
| 2017 | -1.4% | Declining |
| 2018 | 4.4% | Rising |
| 2019 | 5.6% | Rising |
| 2020 | 7.2% | Rising |
| 2021 | 6.6% | Stable |
| 2022 | 3.2% | Declining |
| 2023 | 7.9% | Rising |
| 2024 | 8.0% | Stable |
| 2025 | 7.7% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Waste Connections, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Waste Connections, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 31.1%. FCF covers the dividend 12.0x. 17 consecutive years of payments.
Waste Connections, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.0B | $7.2B | $5.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $1.1B | $0.8B | Rising |
Common questions about Waste Connections, Inc.
Is Waste Connections, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Waste Connections, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 3.03 places it in the safe zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Waste Connections, Inc.'s intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Waste Connections, Inc.'s intrinsic value at $145.40 per share. The current margin of safety is -10.0%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Waste Connections, Inc. have a competitive moat?
Waste Connections, Inc. receives a moat rating of 2.3 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Waste Connections, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in Waste Connections, Inc., make sure you truly understand it.
A deep understanding of a company's fundamentals, risk profile, and competitive position dramatically increases your investment accuracy and odds of success.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
WCN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings