The Speculation Lab — Disciplined Analysis for High-Risk, High-Reward Assets
Speculation isn't gambling — when it's done with discipline. The Speculation Lab applies fundamental analysis to high-risk, high-reward assets that don't fit traditional value investing frameworks: high-beta growth stocks, meme stocks, and cryptocurrency.
The Rules of the Lab
The Speculation Lab operates under strict principles that separate disciplined speculation from gambling:
Rule 1: Size it to survive a total loss. Every speculative position should be sized so that losing 100% of it doesn't materially damage your portfolio. If you can't afford to lose it all, the position is too large.
Rule 2: Have a thesis. Every position needs a specific, falsifiable thesis. "It's going up" is not a thesis. "Palantir's government AI contracts will expand to commercial at 40%+ margins, making the current 15x revenue multiple cheap relative to the terminal business" is a thesis.
Rule 3: Define your exit before you enter. What price do you sell at? What event would invalidate your thesis? Set these before you buy, because after you own the stock, your judgment will be biased.
Rule 4: No leverage on speculation. Options, margin, and leveraged ETFs amplify both gains and losses. On speculative positions where the downside scenario is -50% to -100%, leverage can and will wipe out more than your position.
Rule 5: Track your hit rate honestly. Keep a log of every speculative trade: thesis, entry price, exit price, outcome. Most people's self-assessed hit rate is 20-30% higher than reality.
What We Cover
The Speculation Lab analyzes three categories of high-risk assets:
High-Beta Growth Stocks — Companies with >50K monthly search volume that are too early-stage or too volatile for traditional value analysis. PLTR, SOFI, RIVN, and other high-profile names. See High-Beta Stocks.
Meme Stocks — Retail-driven momentum names where the price disconnects from fundamentals. We analyze the actual business underneath the narrative. See Meme Stocks.
Cryptocurrency — Digital assets where traditional financial analysis doesn't apply. We use network adoption metrics, hash rate analysis, and on-chain data instead. Coming soon.
Explore the Lab
High-Beta Stocks
The most volatile stocks in the market — high risk, high potential reward. Requires strict position sizing.
Meme Stocks
Retail-driven momentum stocks. Fundamentals often disconnected from price — know what you're buying.
Learn: Speculation vs. Investing
Where investing ends and speculation begins — and how to manage both in one portfolio.
Common questions
Why does a value investing site have a speculation section?
Because most investors speculate whether they admit it or not. A separate section with explicit 'this is speculation' labeling is more honest than pretending PLTR or Bitcoin fit a traditional DCF model. We apply the same analytical rigor but with different tools and strict position sizing rules.
How is the Speculation Lab different from the main analysis?
Three key differences: (1) We use alternative valuation frameworks (scenario analysis, relative pricing, adoption curves) because traditional DCF models don't work well for pre-profit or crypto assets. (2) Position sizing guidance is more conservative — never more than 2-5% per speculative position. (3) We explicitly label downside scenarios, including total loss.
What position size should I use for speculative stocks?
Our general guidance: never more than 5% of your portfolio in any single speculative position, and never more than 15-20% of your total portfolio in speculation overall. The Kelly Criterion provides a mathematical framework for optimal position sizing based on your confidence and the payoff odds.
Other research engines
Fair Value Lab
For traditional stocks that fit a DCF framework — the core of your portfolio.
The Strike Zone
The conservative counterpart to the Speculation Lab — only triple-qualified value stocks.
Risk Audit
Even speculative positions deserve a risk check.