We calculate intrinsic value for 98 US stocks using a transparent three-factor model — then compare it to the market price so you can see the margin of safety at a glance. All data from SEC EDGAR. All formulas documented.
Most free tools use a single DCF. We blend three approaches to reduce model-specific bias — each captures a different dimension of what a stock is worth.
The stock's median PE ratio over 4+ years, multiplied by consensus forward EPS. This anchors valuation to how the market has historically priced this specific company's earnings — not a theoretical model, but market reality.
Two-stage DCF using 10 years of free cash flow from SEC EDGAR. Growth rate blends 70% analyst consensus with 30% historical CAGR, capped at 20%. Discounted at CAPM-derived WACC. Terminal value at GDP growth rate.
Enterprise Value divided by Free Cash Flow, benchmarked against historical and sector norms. This catches companies where the balance sheet — large debt or cash piles — significantly distorts the equity value picture.
Net cash adjustment: After calculating the weighted average, we add net cash (cash & equivalents minus total debt) from the balance sheet. Tech giants sitting on huge cash piles may show higher intrinsic values than pure earnings-based models suggest. Full formulas on the methodology page.
Our classifier sorts each ticker into one of three categories — because applying a PE-based model to an unprofitable company is worse than useless.
Profitable, stable cash flows. All three valuation factors apply at full weight. The classic Buffett-Munger investment.
Profitable but volatile or growth-dependent. PE-based factor gets reduced weight because historical PE is less reliable for rapidly changing businesses.
Unprofitable or pre-earnings. Traditional valuation is unreliable — the page prominently warns about model limitations. Position sizing matters most here.
Examples: CRWD, NET, SNOW
Numbers without context are just numbers. Here is what the three-factor model actually says about real stocks — and where it has known limitations.
Payment network processing trillions annually with near-zero credit risk. Our model estimates fair value at $280.84 vs. market price $320.18.
Trades at $217.42 with fair value of $99.20. But Z-Score of 1.56 is firmly in distress. Negative FCF makes the DCF unreliable — always check the Risk Audit.
Our model shows fair value of $340.34 vs. $369.27 — a -9% gap. The 20% growth cap and CAPM discount undervalue AI-driven revenue acceleration. A known limitation we plan to recalibrate.
A stock below fair value might be cheap for a reason. Always cross-reference before acting.
Is the company financially healthy enough to generate those future cash flows? A distress-zone Z-Score means the DCF may be unreliable — the company might not survive long enough to deliver.
Does the company have a competitive advantage that protects its margins? A stock with no moat may be undervalued because the business is becoming commoditized — margins will compress regardless.
If you are buying for income, verify the payout is sustainable. An A-grade dividend at a fair price is a compounding machine. A D-grade at a discount is often a trap.
When all three green lights are on — undervalued, safe, moated — you have found what Buffett calls "a wonderful company at a fair price."
Enter the Strike Zone →Stocks trading below our estimated intrinsic value — the largest positive margins of safety in our coverage.
Stocks trading above fair value — negative margin of safety. Is the premium justified by growth?
Triple-qualified: undervalued + safe Z-Score + wide moat. The most selective filter on the site.
Walk through the Discounted Cash Flow calculation with a real company example.
Why Benjamin Graham said these are the three most important words in investing.
We use a three-factor model: Historical PE × Forward EPS (50% weight), Discounted Cash Flow (30%), and EV/FCF multiple (20%). Growth rates blend 70% analyst consensus with 30% historical CAGR, discounted at a CAPM-derived WACC. Net cash from the balance sheet is added to the final estimate.
Margin of safety is the gap between intrinsic value and market price. A positive margin means the stock trades below fair value — a potential bargain. A negative margin means you would pay more than our estimate of the stock's worth. Value investors typically look for at least 20-30% margin of safety.
Different models, different assumptions. We blend three approaches to reduce bias. Our growth rate uses 70% analyst consensus and 30% historical CAGR. We also add net cash from the balance sheet. Every assumption is shown on the ticker page so you can audit the math.
Yes. The undervalued and overvalued pages act as screeners sorted by margin of safety. The Strike Zone page adds Z-Score and moat filters for the most selective list. Or use the search box above to jump directly to any ticker.
That combination is a classic value trap signal. A stock can appear cheap while the business is deteriorating. Always cross-reference fair value with the Risk Audit and Moat Ratings before buying. The Strike Zone automatically filters out these dangerous combinations.
Is the company financially distressed? Check the Altman Z-Score before trusting the valuation.
Does the company have a durable competitive advantage that protects future cash flows?
If you are buying for income, verify the dividend is sustainable before committing capital.