Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Healthcare · Medical Instruments & Supplies
By Marcus Wei, Lead Engineer · MS, Carnegie Mellon
·
Last reviewed Jul 11, 2026
Is Hologic, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Fair value works out to $87.10, putting the stock roughly 12.7% under the model — solid buy-zone setup. EPS trajectory reads accelerating. Recent financials show revenue declining, net income declining. Z-Score is 4.20, well inside the safe zone and consistent with a balance sheet that can ride out a typical downturn.
Could Hologic, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
The Z-Score for Hologic (4.20) reflects retained earnings and EBIT-to-asset coverage that comfortably exceed Altman's distress thresholds.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives HOLX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2985 | 1.2 | 0.36 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3784 | 1.4 | 0.53 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0886 | 3.3 | 0.29 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 4.2775 | 0.6 | 2.57 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4549 | 1.0 | 0.45 |
How has HOLX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.21 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.9 | Safe |
| 2024 | 4.13 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.2 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from HOLX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Hologic, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.25 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.49 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $4.46 | 9 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 31.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 26.8x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $76.67 (9 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Hologic, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Weak moat at 2.7/5. Most businesses in this band see margin contract whenever competition intensifies; valuation has to bake that in.
What makes up HOLX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is HOLX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21.9% | — |
| 2023 | 10.1% | Declining |
| 2024 | 12.9% | Rising |
| 2025 | 10.6% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Hologic, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Hologic, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.1B | $4.0B | $4.9B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.6B | $0.8B | $1.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | $1.1B | $2.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | 55.3% | 61.6% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our HOLX analysis
HOLX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.07. Revenue estimate: $1.03B. Our current Fair Value: $87.10 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
HOLX analyst consensus: 0% bullish (0 of 15 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 15 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $76.67 (0.9% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $87.10.
HOLX missed EPS estimates by 5.4%
Reported EPS: $1.04 vs estimate $1.10. Our Fair Value of $87.10 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
HOLX beat EPS estimates by 2.6%
Reported EPS: $1.13 vs estimate $1.10. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).
HOLX beat EPS estimates by 2.7%
Reported EPS: $1.08 vs estimate $1.05. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).
HOLX beat EPS estimates by 1.4%
Reported EPS: $1.03 vs estimate $1.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).
HOLX beat EPS estimates by 1.4%
Reported EPS: $1.03 vs estimate $1.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $87.10 (14.6% above current price).
Common questions about Hologic, Inc.
What is Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) stock price today?
Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) closed at $76.01 on the NASDAQ exchange. Analyst consensus 12-month target: $76.67 (+0.9% from current).
What kind of company is Hologic, Inc.?
Hologic, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and supply of diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment worldwide. It operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health.
Why does Hologic, Inc. look cheap?
The model's fair value sits at $87.10; the stock's about 12.7% below that. Solid entry math for a long-term position, especially if the operating numbers cooperate.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $87.10
- Current Price: $76.01
- Margin of Safety: +12.7%
- Valuation Zone: Buy Zone
On the latest filings, revenue prints at $4.1B with net income at $0.6B (revenue trend: declining).
Is Hologic, Inc. exposed to competition?
Hologic, Inc. earns 2.7/5 on the moat scorecard. Limited durable advantages translate to limited pricing power; if the thesis here is value, it's value at a discount that already reflects the moat gap.
How healthy is Hologic, Inc. financially?
Safe-zone reading of 4.20. The five-factor model — covering liquidity, profitability, leverage, and asset turnover — leaves no flag for Hologic, Inc.. Solvency isn't the question on this name; valuation and moat are.
Will HOLX ever pay a dividend?
Hologic, Inc. does not currently distribute dividends. Companies in this position typically retain cash for reinvestment, acquisitions, debt reduction, or buybacks. Whether that's the right call depends on whether management can earn returns above shareholders' opportunity cost — read the moat and capital allocation sections to judge.
What is HOLX's P/E ratio?
Hologic, Inc. trades at 31.5x trailing earnings versus our fair P/E of 26.8x — roughly in line with what fundamentals justify. Forward P/E (based on next-12-month earnings estimates) is 15.7x.
Is Hologic, Inc. still growing?
Hologic, Inc. shows moderate growth:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): +3.3%
- EPS growth (current year est.): +4.6%
- Forward year revenue growth: +5.3%
What is HOLX's return on equity (ROE)?
Hologic, Inc.'s ROE is 10.9%. ROE measures how efficiently shareholder equity is being deployed. Above 15% is generally considered strong; below 10% can indicate inefficiency or capital-heavy operations.
How dependent is Hologic, Inc. on its drug pipeline?
Hologic, Inc. sits in Medical Instruments & Supplies. For pharmaceuticals and biotech, future revenue depends on pipeline progression, patent cliffs, and regulatory approvals. For services and devices, it's more about volume and pricing.
Why is Hologic, Inc.'s free cash flow yield so high?
Hologic, Inc. generated $848.6M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow on a market cap of $16.97B — an FCF yield of roughly 5.0%. High FCF yield often signals that the market is undervaluing the company's cash generation, though it can also reflect concerns about growth.
Where can I buy Hologic, Inc. shares?
HOLX is traded on the NASDAQ and accessible through any standard brokerage. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers, etc.)
- Search for ticker HOLX
- Place a market or limit order at your desired price
This is informational, not financial advice. Always size positions to your risk tolerance.
What do HOLX's financial statements look like?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.1B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.6B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.9B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 51.6% | Declining |
Other Healthcare companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
Analyst-of-record: Marcus Wei, Lead Engineer · MS, Carnegie Mellon. Last comprehensive review of this page: Jul 11, 2026.
Spotted a calculation error or have a question on the editorial frame? Email [email protected].
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 23, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
HOLX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings