Viatris Inc. (VTRS) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Is Viatris Inc. a safe investment right now?
Viatris Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.11 places it in the distress zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $29.74, suggesting the stock may be undervalued by 50%. Moat rating: 2.8/5 stars.
Could Viatris Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.11 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives VTRS's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0901 | 1.2 | 0.11 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0824 | 1.4 | 0.12 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0185 | 3.3 | 0.06 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.7573 | 0.6 | 0.45 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3708 | 1.0 | 0.37 |
How has VTRS's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.31 | Distress |
| 2021 | 0.66 | Distress |
| 2022 | 0.62 | Distress |
| 2023 | 0.95 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.1 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.11 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from VTRS's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What could Viatris Inc. be worth? (High Uncertainty)
Fair value range: $14.15 — $58.05
Valuation Methods Used
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $14.15 | 50% | 5.3x avg PE (1 years) × $2.67 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $58.05 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $2.4B TTM FCF, 8.3% growth, 7.0% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $26.26 | 20% | TTM FCF × 18x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 8.3% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 3.7% | Consensus (9 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 9.5% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 12.2% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 0.82*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-13,185M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $2.4B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,164,420,909 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 7.0% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $33.61 | $24.84 | $40.91 | $17.92 |
| 2.5% | $38.92 | $28.54 | $47.56 | $20.38 |
| 5.0% | $45.00 | $32.76 | $55.21 | $23.18 |
| 7.5% | $53.29 | $38.43 | $65.73 | $26.85 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.1B | — |
| 2021 | $1.6B | +-23.9% |
| 2022 | $1.0B | +-37.8% |
| 2023 | $2.6B | +158.9% |
| 2024 | $2.6B | +1.3% |
| 2025 | $2.5B | +-2.7% |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Viatris Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.8/5.
What makes up VTRS's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 1/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 5/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is VTRS's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3.5% | — |
| 2021 | 1.4% | Declining |
| 2022 | -0.5% | Declining |
| 2023 | -0.1% | Stable |
| 2024 | 4.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 2.1% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Viatris Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Viatris Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 960.0%. FCF covers the dividend 0.0x. 28 consecutive years of payments.
Viatris Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.4B | $16.2B | $11.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.0B | N/A | N/A | — |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.5B | $2.6B | $1.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 41.8% | 40.1% | 32.1% | Rising |
Common questions about Viatris Inc.
Is Viatris Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Viatris Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.11 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Viatris Inc.'s intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Viatris Inc.'s intrinsic value at $29.74 per share. The current margin of safety is 50.0%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Viatris Inc. have a competitive moat?
Viatris Inc. receives a moat rating of 2.8 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Viatris Inc.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in Viatris Inc., make sure you truly understand it.
A deep understanding of a company's fundamentals, risk profile, and competitive position dramatically increases your investment accuracy and odds of success.
Pass the quiz to earn the VTRS Certified Value Investor badge.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
VTRS analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings