Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Trading at $150.98, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) in the Industrials sector carries a FairValueLabs fair value estimate of $128.40 — a margin of safety of -17.6%, placing it in the Overvalued. An Altman Z-Score of 8.88 confirms the company is in the safe zone — financial distress is unlikely near-term. Our moat rating stands at 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat), indicating moderate competitive positioning. On the income side, EXPD currently pays a dividend with a safety grade of .
Could Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 8.88 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives EXPD's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3439 | 1.2 | 0.41 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5187 | 1.4 | 0.73 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2151 | 3.3 | 0.71 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 7.9495 | 0.6 | 4.77 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 2.2619 | 1.0 | 2.26 |
How has EXPD's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10.37 | Safe |
| 2023 | 9.67 | Safe |
| 2024 | 8.86 | Safe |
| 2025 | 8.88 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from EXPD's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $6.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $5.95 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $6.06 | 14 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 25.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 21.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $139.50 (14 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up EXPD's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is EXPD's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 53.4% | — |
| 2023 | 39.3% | Declining |
| 2024 | 46.8% | Rising |
| 2025 | 44.7% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 25.9%. FCF covers the dividend 9.6x. 33 consecutive years of payments.
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.1B | $10.6B | $17.1B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.8B | $0.8B | $1.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | $0.7B | $2.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 12.9% | 12.7% | 12.7% | Stable |
Common questions about Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 8.88 places it in the safe zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s fair value at $128.40 per share. The current margin of safety is -17.6%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. have a competitive moat?
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. receives a moat rating of 3.4 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
EXPD analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings