United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Is United Parcel Service, Inc. a safe investment right now?
United Parcel Service, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.97 places it in the gray zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $137.42, suggesting the stock may be undervalued by 22%. Moat rating: 3.5/5 stars.
Could United Parcel Service, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.97 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives UPS's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0409 | 1.2 | 0.05 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.298 | 1.4 | 0.42 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1305 | 3.3 | 0.43 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.2988 | 0.6 | 0.78 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.2981 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
How has UPS's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2.21 | Gray |
| 2017 | 2.26 | Gray |
| 2018 | 3.63 | Safe |
| 2019 | 3.4 | Safe |
| 2020 | 3.14 | Safe |
| 2021 | 2.83 | Gray |
| 2022 | 3.05 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.28 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.23 | Safe |
| 2025 | 2.97 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from UPS's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is United Parcel Service, Inc. actually worth?
Fair value range: $122.59 — $161.17
Valuation Methods
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $129.10 | 50% | 16.3x avg PE (4 years) × $7.92 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $161.17 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $5.2B TTM FCF, 10.6% growth, 8.7% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $122.59 | 20% | TTM FCF × 22x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 10.6% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | -2.1% | Consensus (28 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 13.1% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 22.5% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.7% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 1.1*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-22,703M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $5.2B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 745,633,402 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 8.7% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $111.98 | $82.75 | $99.62 | $59.71 |
| 2.5% | $129.64 | $95.07 | $115.00 | $67.91 |
| 5.0% | $149.90 | $109.14 | $132.63 | $77.22 |
| 7.5% | $177.54 | $128.03 | $156.55 | $89.44 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $3.4B | — |
| 2017 | $5.1B | +48.6% |
| 2018 | $3.5B | +-30.5% |
| 2019 | $−3.7B | N/A |
| 2020 | $6.4B | N/A |
| 2021 | $2.3B | +-64.9% |
| 2022 | $5.0B | +123.4% |
| 2023 | $10.8B | +114.2% |
| 2024 | $9.3B | +-13.7% |
| 2025 | $5.1B | +-45.6% |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does United Parcel Service, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.5/5.
What makes up UPS's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 5/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 2/5.
How stable is UPS's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20.1% | — |
| 2017 | 28.8% | Rising |
| 2018 | 27.8% | Declining |
| 2019 | 23.9% | Declining |
| 2020 | 20.3% | Declining |
| 2021 | 19.1% | Declining |
| 2022 | 17.1% | Declining |
| 2023 | 25.0% | Rising |
| 2024 | 24.5% | Stable |
| 2025 | 17.0% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can United Parcel Service, Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 100.0%. FCF covers the dividend 2.4x. 28 consecutive years of payments.
United Parcel Service, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $91.0B | $100.3B | $84.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $6.7B | $11.5B | $1.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.1B | $9.3B | $5.0B | Stable |
Common questions about United Parcel Service, Inc.
Is United Parcel Service, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
United Parcel Service, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.97 places it in the gray zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates United Parcel Service, Inc.'s intrinsic value at $137.42 per share. The current margin of safety is 22.1%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does United Parcel Service, Inc. have a competitive moat?
United Parcel Service, Inc. receives a moat rating of 3.5 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is United Parcel Service, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in United Parcel Service, Inc., make sure you truly understand it.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
UPS analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings