Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Is Emerson Electric Co. a safe investment right now?
Emerson Electric Co.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.94 places it in the gray zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $94.92, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 55%. Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could Emerson Electric Co. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.94 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives EMR's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1041 | 1.2 | 0.12 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.9552 | 1.4 | 1.34 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0 | 3.3 | 0.0 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.8652 | 0.6 | 1.12 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3548 | 1.0 | 0.35 |
How has EMR's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3.59 | Safe |
| 2017 | 3.76 | Safe |
| 2018 | 4.12 | Safe |
| 2019 | 4.88 | Safe |
| 2020 | 5.0 | Safe |
| 2021 | 4.94 | Safe |
| 2022 | 4.45 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.54 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.41 | Safe |
| 2025 | 2.94 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from EMR's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Emerson Electric Co. actually worth?
Fair value range: $22.59 — $164.55
Valuation Methods
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $164.55 | 50% | 31.0x avg PE (3 years) × $5.31 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $22.59 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $2.9B TTM FCF, -5.0% growth, 10.3% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $29.33 | 20% | TTM FCF × 10x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | -5.0% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 8.2% | Consensus (27 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 10.1% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | -41.9% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.3% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 1.28*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-12,311M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $2.9B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 562,000,000 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 10.3% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $82.48 | $60.95 | $58.67 | $43.98 |
| 2.5% | $95.48 | $70.02 | $67.33 | $50.01 |
| 5.0% | $110.41 | $80.39 | $77.22 | $56.87 |
| 7.5% | $130.76 | $94.30 | $90.46 | $65.87 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $3.0B | — |
| 2017 | $1.9B | +-36.2% |
| 2018 | $2.4B | +25.4% |
| 2019 | $1.4B | +-41.0% |
| 2020 | $2.3B | +58.4% |
| 2021 | $2.4B | +6.0% |
| 2022 | $2.5B | +5.5% |
| 2023 | $3.2B | +24.6% |
| 2024 | $2.6B | +-17.3% |
| 2025 | $0.3B | +-89.6% |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Emerson Electric Co. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up EMR's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 1/5.
How stable is EMR's return on invested capital?
No ROIC history available.
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Emerson Electric Co.'s dividend safe?
Can Emerson Electric Co. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 52.4%. FCF covers the dividend 2.0x. 55 consecutive years of payments.
Emerson Electric Co.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.2B | $13.8B | $16.8B | Declining |
| Net Income | $13.2B | $3.2B | $2.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.3B | $2.6B | $2.5B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 12.6% | 11.7% | 10.3% | Rising |
Common questions about Emerson Electric Co.
Is Emerson Electric Co. at risk of going bankrupt?
Emerson Electric Co.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.94 places it in the gray zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Emerson Electric Co.'s intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Emerson Electric Co.'s intrinsic value at $94.92 per share. The current margin of safety is -54.6%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Emerson Electric Co. have a competitive moat?
Emerson Electric Co. receives a moat rating of 2.3 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Emerson Electric Co.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in Emerson Electric Co., make sure you truly understand it.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
EMR analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings