Sea Limited (SE) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail
Is Sea Limited a safe investment right now?
Sea Limited's Altman Z-Score of 0 places it in the distress zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $86.85, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 3%. Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could Sea Limited go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Insufficient data to calculate Z-Score.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SE's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|
How has SE's financial health changed over time?
No Z-Score history available.
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|
Source: Calculated from SE's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What could Sea Limited be worth? (High Uncertainty)
Fair value range: $34.60 — $137.76
Valuation Methods Used
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $137.76 | 50% | 40.0x avg PE (1 years) × $3.44 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $34.60 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $0.5B TTM FCF, 18.3% growth, 13.0% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $37.93 | 20% | TTM FCF × 28x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 18.3% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 21.7% | Consensus (29 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 30.4% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 0% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 13.0% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 1.7*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $7,196M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $0.5B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 566,956,729 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 13.0% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $14.51 | $10.72 | $7.74 | $7.74 |
| 2.5% | $16.80 | $12.32 | $8.80 | $8.80 |
| 5.0% | $19.42 | $14.14 | $10.01 | $10.01 |
| 7.5% | $23.01 | $16.59 | $11.59 | $11.59 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Sea Limited have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up SE's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 2/5.
How stable is SE's return on invested capital?
No ROIC history available.
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Sea Limited's dividend safe?
Sea Limited's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|
Common questions about Sea Limited
Is Sea Limited at risk of going bankrupt?
Sea Limited's Altman Z-Score of 0 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Sea Limited's intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Sea Limited's intrinsic value at $86.85 per share. The current margin of safety is -2.9%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Sea Limited have a competitive moat?
Sea Limited receives a moat rating of 2.3 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does Sea Limited pay a dividend?
Sea Limited does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SE analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings