Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 7.07 places it in the safe zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $37.92, suggesting the stock may be undervalued by 6%. Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 7.07 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CMG's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0665 | 1.2 | 0.08 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.171 | 1.4 | 0.24 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1692 | 3.3 | 0.56 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 8.5382 | 0.6 | 5.12 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.0725 | 1.0 | 1.07 |
How has CMG's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 49.83 | Safe |
| 2017 | 48.5 | Safe |
| 2018 | 45.51 | Safe |
| 2019 | 38.64 | Safe |
| 2020 | 10.32 | Safe |
| 2021 | 9.24 | Safe |
| 2022 | 8.49 | Safe |
| 2023 | 8.73 | Safe |
| 2024 | 8.4 | Safe |
| 2025 | 7.07 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from CMG's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. actually worth?
Fair value range: $18.66 — $54.40
Valuation Methods
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $54.40 | 50% | 40.0x avg PE (4 years) × $1.36 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $23.30 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $1.0B TTM FCF, 15.9% growth, 9.5% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $18.66 | 20% | TTM FCF × 28x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 15.9% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | -2.5% | Consensus (35 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 19.3% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 33.3% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.5% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 1.06*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-4,027M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $1.0B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,302,423,000 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 9.5% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $12.50 | $9.24 | $9.88 | $6.67 |
| 2.5% | $14.48 | $10.62 | $11.37 | $7.58 |
| 5.0% | $16.74 | $12.19 | $13.08 | $8.62 |
| 7.5% | $19.82 | $14.30 | $15.38 | $9.99 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $0.1B | — |
| 2019 | $0.3B | +161.1% |
| 2020 | $0.3B | +32.9% |
| 2021 | $0.4B | +16.0% |
| 2022 | $0.3B | +-25.1% |
| 2023 | $0.8B | +189.0% |
| 2024 | $0.8B | +0.5% |
| 2025 | $1.2B | +44.9% |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up CMG's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 2/5.
How stable is CMG's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 29.1% | — |
| 2017 | 43.8% | Rising |
| 2018 | 2.0% | Declining |
| 2019 | 14.9% | Rising |
| 2020 | 5.8% | Declining |
| 2021 | 8.6% | Rising |
| 2022 | 5.0% | Declining |
| 2023 | 13.4% | Rising |
| 2024 | 16.5% | Rising |
| 2025 | 19.4% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.9B | $8.6B | $6.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.2B | $0.9B | $0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $0.8B | $0.3B | Rising |
Common questions about Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 7.07 places it in the safe zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s intrinsic value at $37.92 per share. The current margin of safety is 5.5%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. have a competitive moat?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. receives a moat rating of 2.3 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. pay a dividend?
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CMG analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings