Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Is Wynn Resorts, Limited a safe investment right now?
Trading at $107.66, Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) in the Consumer Cyclical sector carries a FairValueLabs fair value estimate of $117.89 — a margin of safety of 8.7%, placing it in the Watch Zone. With an Altman Z-Score of 1.25, the company sits in the distress zone — bankruptcy risk is elevated and warrants close monitoring. Our moat rating stands at 3.3/5 stars (Narrow moat), indicating moderate competitive positioning. On the income side, WYNN currently pays a dividend with a safety grade of .
Could Wynn Resorts, Limited go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.25 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives WYNN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0794 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.1109 | 1.4 | -0.16 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0869 | 3.3 | 0.29 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.794 | 0.6 | 0.48 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5445 | 1.0 | 0.54 |
How has WYNN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.63 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.13 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.32 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.25 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from WYNN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Wynn Resorts, Limited actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $4.01 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $3.14 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $5.31 | 18 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 34.6x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 29.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $140.44 (18 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Wynn Resorts, Limited have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.3/5.
What makes up WYNN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is WYNN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -0.4% | — |
| 2023 | 9.0% | Rising |
| 2024 | 12.9% | Rising |
| 2025 | 11.1% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Wynn Resorts, Limited's dividend safe?
Can Wynn Resorts, Limited afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 31.9%. FCF covers the dividend -265.5x. 18 consecutive years of payments.
Wynn Resorts, Limited's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.1B | $7.1B | $3.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.3B | $0.5B | −$0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | $1.0B | −$0.4B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 41.4% | 43.5% | 36.4% | Rising |
Common questions about Wynn Resorts, Limited
Is Wynn Resorts, Limited at risk of going bankrupt?
Wynn Resorts, Limited's Altman Z-Score of 1.25 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Wynn Resorts, Limited's estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates Wynn Resorts, Limited's fair value at $117.89 per share. The current margin of safety is 8.7%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does Wynn Resorts, Limited have a competitive moat?
Wynn Resorts, Limited receives a moat rating of 3.3 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Wynn Resorts, Limited's dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
WYNN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings