Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Trading at $570.16, Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) in the Consumer Cyclical sector carries a FairValueLabs fair value estimate of $486.97 — a margin of safety of -17.1%, placing it in the Overvalued. An Altman Z-Score of 6.62 confirms the company is in the safe zone — financial distress is unlikely near-term. Our moat rating stands at 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat), indicating moderate competitive positioning.
Could Ulta Beauty, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 6.62 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives ULTA's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1314 | 1.2 | 0.16 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2482 | 1.4 | 0.35 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.2213 | 3.3 | 0.73 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 6.0282 | 0.6 | 3.62 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.7706 | 1.0 | 1.77 |
How has ULTA's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7.85 | Safe |
| 2024 | 7.93 | Safe |
| 2025 | 7.66 | Safe |
| 2026 | 6.62 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from ULTA's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $25.63 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (4Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $25.34 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $28.53 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 22.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 19.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Stable | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $676.21 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Ulta Beauty, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.4/5.
What makes up ULTA's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is ULTA's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 60.0% | — |
| 2024 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2025 | 60.0% | Stable |
| 2026 | 54.0% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | $11.3B | $10.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $1.0B | $1.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 39.1% | 38.8% | 39.6% | Stable |
Common questions about Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 6.62 places it in the safe zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s fair value at $486.97 per share. The current margin of safety is -17.1%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does Ulta Beauty, Inc. have a competitive moat?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. receives a moat rating of 3.4 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does Ulta Beauty, Inc. pay a dividend?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
ULTA analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings