Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Is Rivian Automotive, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of -0.99 places it in the distress zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $0.00, suggesting the stock may be undervalued by 0%. Moat rating: 1.6/5 stars.
Could Rivian Automotive, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of -0.99 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives RIVN's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.5407 | 1.2 | 0.65 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -1.5123 | 1.4 | -2.12 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.3724 | 3.3 | -1.23 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.3731 | 0.6 | 1.42 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.2877 | 1.0 | 0.29 |
How has RIVN's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 16.8 | Safe |
| 2022 | 4.91 | Safe |
| 2023 | 2.0 | Gray |
| 2024 | -0.45 | Distress |
| 2025 | -0.99 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from RIVN's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. — Traditional Valuation Does Not Apply
This stock does not have reliable earnings or cash flow history for fundamental valuation. The current price reflects market sentiment, momentum, or turnaround hopes rather than discountable cash flows. We provide risk metrics (Z-Score, financial health) but not a fair value estimate.
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $−0.6B | — |
| 2022 | $−1.8B | N/A |
| 2023 | $−4.4B | N/A |
| 2024 | $−6.4B | N/A |
| 2025 | $−5.9B | N/A |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Rivian Automotive, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 1.6/5.
What makes up RIVN's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 1/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 1/5.
How stable is RIVN's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | -10.2% | — |
| 2022 | -4.9% | Rising |
| 2023 | -27.3% | Declining |
| 2024 | -48.0% | Declining |
| 2025 | -43.6% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s dividend safe?
Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | $1.7B | $0.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$5.4B | −$6.8B | −$1.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$5.9B | −$6.4B | −$1.8B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | -45.8% | -188.4% | N/A | — |
Common questions about Rivian Automotive, Inc.
Is Rivian Automotive, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of -0.99 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s intrinsic value at $0.00 per share. The current margin of safety is 0.0%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Rivian Automotive, Inc. have a competitive moat?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. receives a moat rating of 1.6 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does Rivian Automotive, Inc. pay a dividend?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
Before you invest in Rivian Automotive, Inc., make sure you truly understand it.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
RIVN analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings