Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Is Restaurant Brands International Inc. a safe investment right now?
Trading at $78.69, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) in the Consumer Cyclical sector carries a FairValueLabs fair value estimate of $76.96 — a margin of safety of -2.3%, placing it in the Fairly Valued. An Altman Z-Score of 1.80 lands in the gray zone, signaling elevated uncertainty around financial health. Our moat rating stands at 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat), indicating moderate competitive positioning. On the income side, QSR currently pays a dividend with a safety grade of .
Could Restaurant Brands International Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.8 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives QSR's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0024 | 1.2 | -0.0 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0701 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0861 | 3.3 | 0.28 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.7536 | 0.6 | 1.05 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3683 | 1.0 | 0.37 |
How has QSR's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.79 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.84 | Gray |
| 2024 | 1.85 | Gray |
| 2025 | 1.8 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from QSR's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Restaurant Brands International Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.03 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.35 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $4.06 | 28 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 29.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 25.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $81.46 (28 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Restaurant Brands International Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up QSR's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is QSR's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12.1% | — |
| 2023 | 12.9% | Stable |
| 2024 | 14.3% | Rising |
| 2025 | 13.0% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Restaurant Brands International Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 94.3%. FCF covers the dividend 1.4x. 12 consecutive years of payments.
Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.4B | $8.4B | $6.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.8B | $1.0B | $1.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.4B | Stable |
| Gross Margin | 33.9% | 36.0% | 39.9% | Declining |
Common questions about Restaurant Brands International Inc.
Is Restaurant Brands International Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.8 places it in the gray zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s fair value at $76.96 per share. The current margin of safety is -2.2%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does Restaurant Brands International Inc. have a competitive moat?
Restaurant Brands International Inc. receives a moat rating of 3.1 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
QSR analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings