Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
Is Carnival Corporation & plc a safe investment right now?
Trading at $27.36, Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) in the Consumer Cyclical sector carries a FairValueLabs fair value estimate of $18.05 — a margin of safety of -51.6%, placing it in the Overvalued. With an Altman Z-Score of 1.28, the company sits in the distress zone — bankruptcy risk is elevated and warrants close monitoring. Our moat rating stands at 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding), suggesting limited pricing power in a competitive landscape. On the income side, CCL currently pays a dividend with a safety grade of .
Could Carnival Corporation & plc go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.28 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CCL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.1717 | 1.2 | -0.21 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0932 | 1.4 | 0.13 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0797 | 3.3 | 0.26 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.9618 | 0.6 | 0.58 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.515 | 1.0 | 0.52 |
How has CCL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.39 | Distress |
| 2023 | 0.97 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.19 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.28 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from CCL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Carnival Corporation & plc actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.77 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.02 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.22 | 22 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 12.1x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 10.2x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Declining | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $34.51 (22 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Carnival Corporation & plc have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up CCL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CCL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -10.8% | — |
| 2023 | 5.3% | Rising |
| 2024 | 10.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 10.6% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Carnival Corporation & plc's dividend safe?
Can Carnival Corporation & plc afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 6.6%. FCF covers the dividend 0.0x. 33 consecutive years of payments.
Carnival Corporation & plc's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.6B | $25.0B | $12.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.8B | $1.9B | −$6.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | $1.3B | −$6.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 40.1% | 37.5% | 3.4% | Rising |
Common questions about Carnival Corporation & plc
Is Carnival Corporation & plc at risk of going bankrupt?
Carnival Corporation & plc's Altman Z-Score of 1.28 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Carnival Corporation & plc's estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates Carnival Corporation & plc's fair value at $18.05 per share. The current margin of safety is -51.6%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does Carnival Corporation & plc have a competitive moat?
Carnival Corporation & plc receives a moat rating of 2.9 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Carnival Corporation & plc's dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 22, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CCL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings