Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Travel Services
Is Carnival Corporation Ltd. a safe investment right now?
Carnival Corporation Ltd.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.29 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $18.30 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Could Carnival Corporation Ltd. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.29 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CCL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.1717 | 1.2 | -0.21 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.0932 | 1.4 | 0.13 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0797 | 3.3 | 0.26 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.979 | 0.6 | 0.59 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.515 | 1.0 | 0.52 |
How has CCL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.4 | Distress |
| 2023 | 0.98 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.2 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.29 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from CCL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Carnival Corporation Ltd. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.76 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.02 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.22 | 24 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 12.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 10.4x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Declining | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $34.59 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Carnival Corporation Ltd. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up CCL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CCL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -10.8% | — |
| 2023 | 5.3% | Rising |
| 2024 | 10.0% | Rising |
| 2025 | 10.6% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Carnival Corporation Ltd.'s dividend safe?
Can Carnival Corporation Ltd. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 6.6%. FCF covers the dividend 0.0x. 33 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
Carnival Corporation Ltd.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.6B | $25.0B | $12.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.8B | $1.9B | −$6.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | $1.3B | −$6.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 40.1% | 37.5% | 3.4% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our CCL analysis
CCL earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.33. Revenue estimate: $6.68B. Our current Fair Value: $18.30 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
CCL analyst consensus: 82% bullish (23 of 28 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $34.59 (24.2% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $18.30.
CCL paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 6.6%.
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL beat EPS estimates by 8.9%
Reported EPS: $0.20 vs estimate $0.18. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $18.30 (34.3% below current price).
CCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL paid $0.1500/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 6.6%.
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL beat EPS estimates by 38.6%
Reported EPS: $0.34 vs estimate $0.25. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $18.30 (34.3% below current price).
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL beat EPS estimates by 1.7%
Reported EPS: $1.33 vs estimate $1.31. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $18.30 (34.3% below current price).
CCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL beat EPS estimates by 45.3%
Reported EPS: $0.35 vs estimate $0.24. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $18.30 (34.3% below current price).
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL beat EPS estimates by 485.1%
Reported EPS: $0.13 vs estimate $0.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $18.30 (34.3% below current price).
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
CCL filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Carnival Corporation Ltd.
What is Carnival Corporation Ltd. stock price today?
Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) stock price is $27.85 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Carnival Corporation Ltd. do?
Carnival Corporation Ltd., a cruise company, provides leisure travel services in North America, Australia, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour and Other. It operates port destinations and islands, as well as owns and operates hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars, and motorcoaches.
What is Carnival Corporation Ltd. market cap?
Carnival Corporation Ltd. has a market capitalization of $38.58B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is CCL in?
Carnival Corporation Ltd. operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Travel Services industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol CCL.
Is CCL stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Carnival Corporation Ltd. trades 52.2% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $18.30
- Current Price: $27.85
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is CCL stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Carnival Corporation Ltd. is $34.59, implying upside of 24.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $45.00
- Analyst Low Target: $28.70
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Carnival Corporation Ltd. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Carnival Corporation Ltd.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 4.6%
- EPS growth (current year est.): -1.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.4%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 17.4%
What are Carnival Corporation Ltd.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $26.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 40.1% | Rising |
What is CCL's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 12.3x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 10.7x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 10.4x
How volatile is CCL stock?
Carnival Corporation Ltd. has a beta of 2.33, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Carnival Corporation Ltd. have?
Carnival Corporation Ltd.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.42B
- Total Debt: $26.61B
- Net Cash Position: $-25.18B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Carnival Corporation Ltd.'s free cash flow?
Carnival Corporation Ltd. generated $2.17B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $6.56B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Carnival Corporation Ltd. pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Carnival Corporation Ltd. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.5%
- Payout Ratio: 6.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 33
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -26.0%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is Carnival Corporation Ltd. at risk of going bankrupt?
Carnival Corporation Ltd.'s Altman Z-Score is 1.29, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Carnival Corporation Ltd. have a durable competitive advantage?
Carnival Corporation Ltd. scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is CCL's return on equity (ROE)?
Carnival Corporation Ltd.'s return on equity is 27.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy CCL stock?
CCL shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol CCL
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is CCL a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Carnival Corporation Ltd. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Carnival Corporation Ltd.?
The current CEO of Carnival Corporation Ltd. is Mr. Joshua Ian Weinstein.
What is CCL's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.27
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $2.60
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $2.22
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $2.60
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CCL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings