FairValueLabs 밸류에이션 시스템 가치투자
EXPD

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.(EXPD) 종목 분석 — 적정가치·리스크·해자 평가

NYQ · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

$148.44 고평가 -2.54 (-1.7%) 기준일 2026년 4월 22일 매매 추천이 아닙니다. 면책 조항 보기.
종합 판정 주의
8.80
Altman Z-Score안전 구간
$127.20
적정가치고평가 (-16.7%)
3.4
해자 평가내로우 모트
요약 · 감사 서머리

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.는 지금 안전한 투자처인가?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 8.8 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $127.20 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.4/5 stars.

주가 차트 · EXPD
제1장 · 재무 건전성

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.는 파산할 가능성이 있는가? Altman Z-Score 분석

8.80

Z-Score of 8.8 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.

  • 1.8 미만 — 위험 구간(파산 리스크 높음)
  • 1.8~3.0 — 회색 구간(불확실성 높음)
  • 3.0 초과 — 안전 구간(재무 건전)

EXPD의 Z-Score를 구성하는 요인은?

EXPD Altman Z-Score 구성 요소
구성 요소산식수치가중치기여도
A · Working Capital / Total AssetsWC / TA0.34391.20.41
B · Retained Earnings / Total AssetsRE / TA0.51871.40.73
C · EBIT / Total AssetsEBIT / TA0.21513.30.71
D · Market Cap / Total LiabilitiesMCap / TL7.81580.64.69
E · Revenue / Total AssetsRev / TA2.26191.02.26

EXPD의 재무 건전성은 어떻게 변화해 왔는가?

3.0 Safe1.8 Distress0.03.05.98.911.82022202320242025
EXPD Z-Score 추이
연도Z-Score구간
202210.29안전
20239.58안전
20248.78안전
20258.8안전

출처: EXPD의 SEC EDGAR 최신 10-K 기반 산출.

제2장 · 적정가치 추정

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.의 진정한 가치는 얼마인가?

FVL 적정가치$127.20
vs
시장 가격$148.44
고평가 -16.7% Stock trades 16.7% above our estimated fair value of $127.20.

산출 방법

FVL 밸류에이션 모델
입력값수치출처
예상 EPS(α)$6.00독자 모델: 공시 실적값 + 애널리스트 컨센서스(α 가중)
전년도 EPS$5.95연차보고서(SEC EDGAR)
애널리스트 컨센서스 EPS(금년도)$6.0614명의 애널리스트 컨센서스
실적 PER24.9x현재 시장 프라이싱
적정 PER(β 디스카운트)21.2x실적 PER을 가치 디스카운트 계수 β로 조정 후 상한 설정
실적 트렌드(γ)안정방향성 시그널: 예상 EPS와 실적 EPS 비교

월가 참고치: 애널리스트 컨센서스 목표주가는 $139.50(14명의 애널리스트). 참고치이며 당사 밸류에이션 모델에는 사용하지 않습니다.

출처: 실적 데이터는 SEC EDGAR 제출 서류, 시장 데이터는 Yahoo Finance. 최근 분기가 반영되지 않았을 수 있습니다.

제3장 · 경쟁우위(해자)

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.는 지속적인 경쟁우위를 보유하고 있는가?

★★★☆☆
내로우 모트

Moat rating: 3.4/5.

EXPD의 해자 점수를 구성하는 요인은?

ROIC Stability

★★★★☆

ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.

Gross Margin Trend

★★★☆☆

Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.

Switching Costs

★★★☆☆

Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.

EXPD의 투하자본수익률은 얼마나 안정적인가?

0%-5%11%27%43%58%2022202320242025
EXPD ROIC 추이
연도ROIC트렌드
202253.4%
202339.3%Declining
202446.8%Rising
202544.7%Declining

출처: ROIC는 SEC EDGAR 제출 서류 기반 산출.

제4장 · 배당 안전성

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.의 배당은 안전한가?

A 배당 안전성 등급
배당수익률1.0%
배당성향25.9%
연속 증배 연수33
5년 성장률8.2%

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.는 현재 배당 수준을 유지할 수 있는가?

Payout ratio is 25.9%. FCF covers the dividend 9.6x. 33 consecutive years of payments.

제5장 · 재무 요약

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.의 주요 재무 지표

EXPD 재무 요약
지표최신1년 전3년 전트렌드
Revenue $11.1B $10.6B $17.1B Declining
Net Income $0.8B $0.8B $1.4B Declining
Free Cash Flow $1.0B $0.7B $2.0B Declining
Gross Margin 12.9% 12.7% 12.7% Stable
제6장 · 랩 시그널

EXPD의 분석에 영향을 미치는 최근 이벤트

EARNINGS

EXPD 실적 발표 예정

랩 영향도

실적 발표 예정. 컨센서스 EPS 예상치: $1.33. 매출 예상치: $2.62B. 당사의 현재 적정가치: $127.20 — 예상치를 크게 상회하거나 하회하면 추정치가 변동될 수 있습니다.

ANALYST

EXPD 애널리스트 컨센서스: 12% 강세 (2/16명)

랩 영향도

0 강력 매수, 2 매수, 8 중립, 3 매도, 3 강력 매도. 컨센서스 목표가: $139.50 (6.0% 하락 여력). 당사 독자 적정가치와 비교: $127.20.

EARNINGS

EXPD EPS 예상치 2.4% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $1.49 예상치 $1.46. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $127.20 (14.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

DIVIDEND

EXPD 주당 $0.7700 배당금 지급

랩 영향도

배당 안전성 등급: A. 배당성향: 25.9%.

EARNINGS

EXPD EPS 예상치 17.6% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $1.64 예상치 $1.39. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $127.20 (14.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

EARNINGS

EXPD EPS 예상치 7.4% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $1.34 예상치 $1.25. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $127.20 (14.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

DIVIDEND

EXPD 주당 $0.7700 배당금 지급

랩 영향도

배당 안전성 등급: A. 배당성향: 25.9%.

EARNINGS

EXPD EPS 예상치 7.5% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $1.47 예상치 $1.37. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $127.20 (14.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

EARNINGS

EXPD EPS 예상치 17.1% 상회

랩 영향도

실제 EPS: $1.68 예상치 $1.43. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $127.20 (14.3% 현재 주가 대비 하회).

제7장 · 자주 묻는 질문

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.에 대한 자주 묻는 질문

What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. stock price today?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) stock price is $148.44 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.

What does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. do?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides logistics services in the Americas, North Asia, South Asia, Europe, and Middle East, Africa, and India. It offers airfreight services, such as air freight consolidation and forwarding; ocean freight and ocean services, including ocean freight consolidation, direct ocean forwarding, and order management; customs brokerage and other services, import, intra-continental ground transportation and delivery, and warehousing and distribution services; and customs clearance, purchase order management, vendor consolidation, time-definite transportation services, temperature-controlled transit, cargo insurance, specialized cargo monitoring and tracking, and other logistics solutions. It also provides optimization, trade compliance consulting, cargo insurance, cargo security, and solutions.

What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. market cap?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. has a market capitalization of $19.82B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Industrials sector.

What sector and industry is EXPD in?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol EXPD.

Is EXPD stock overvalued or undervalued?

Based on our valuation model, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. trades 16.7% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.

  • FairValueLabs Fair Value: $127.20
  • Current Price: $148.44
  • Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is EXPD stock forecast and analyst target price?

Based on 14 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is $139.50, implying downside of 6.0% from the current price.

  • Analyst High Target: $166.00
  • Analyst Low Target: $95.00

Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.

Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?

Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.:

  • Revenue growth (current year est.): 1.0%
  • EPS growth (current year est.): 1.9%
  • Revenue growth (next year est.): 3.7%
  • EPS growth (next year est.): 7.5%
What are Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
MetricLatestTrend
Revenue$11.1BDeclining
Net Income$0.8BDeclining
Free Cash Flow$1.0BDeclining
Gross Margin12.9%Stable
What is EXPD's P/E ratio?

The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:

  • Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 24.9x
  • Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 23.0x
  • FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 21.2x
How volatile is EXPD stock?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. has a beta of 1.08, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.

How much cash and debt does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. have?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:

  • Total Cash: $1.31B
  • Total Debt: $570.6M
  • Net Cash Position: $743.7M

A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.

What is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s free cash flow?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. generated $803.0M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.01B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.

Does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. pay a dividend, and is it safe?

Yes, Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:

  • Dividend Yield: 1.0%
  • Payout Ratio: 25.9%
  • Consecutive Years Paid: 33
  • 5-Year Dividend Growth: 8.2%
  • FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 8.80, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.

Does Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. scores 3.4/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:

  • ROIC Stability: 4/5
  • Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
  • Switching Costs: 3/5

A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.

What is EXPD's return on equity (ROE)?

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s return on equity is 35.4%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.

How do I buy EXPD stock?

EXPD shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:

  1. Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
  2. Search for ticker symbol EXPD
  3. Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares

This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.

Is EXPD a value stock or speculative?

FairValueLabs classifies Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.

Who is the CEO of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.?

The current CEO of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is Mr. Daniel R. Wall.

What is EXPD's earnings per share (EPS)?

Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:

  • Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $5.95
  • Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $6.47
  • Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $6.06
  • Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $6.52

FairValueLabs 면책 조항

본 페이지의 모든 밸류에이션, 점수, 평가, 분류는 FairValueLabs 독자 밸류에이션 시스템으로 산출된 것입니다. 실제 시장 가치, 수익 보장 또는 전문적인 투자 조언을 의미하지 않습니다. 교육 및 리서치 목적의 분석 추정치입니다.

This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

최종 업데이트: 2026년 4월 22일. 데이터 소스: SEC EDGAR(재무제표), Yahoo Finance(시장 데이터, 애널리스트 컨센서스). 최근 분기 데이터가 반영되지 않았을 수 있습니다.

EXPD 분석 방법론: 적정가치, Z-Score, 해자 평가 산출 방법