The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Is The J. M. Smucker Company a safe investment right now?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) stock is $140.00, versus a market price of $124.66 — Buy Zone. Predicted EPS $3.50 x 40.0 Fair PE.
The J. M. Smucker Company's Altman Z-Score of 1.32 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $140.00 (Buy Zone). Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could The J. M. Smucker Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.32 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SJM's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0348 | 1.2 | -0.04 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.0062 | 1.4 | -0.01 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0197 | 3.3 | 0.07 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.2474 | 0.6 | 0.75 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.558 | 1.0 | 0.56 |
How has SJM's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.91 | Gray |
| 2024 | 1.29 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.07 | Distress |
| 2026 | 1.32 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from SJM's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
The J. M. Smucker Company Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
That gap between price and value is the whole point — it is the margin-of-safety principle, and it is why we publish the inputs rather than a verdict. If you want the mechanics, see how we calculate fair value; for the original statement of the method, see Security Analysis, the 1934 original.
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $3.50 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $-1.30 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $10.69 | 16 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 58.3x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $141.44 (16 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does The J. M. Smucker Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
A moat rating means little without the definition behind it — read how we judge a competitive advantage before you lean on this score. It falls short of our 3.5-star wide-moat bar — see other wide moat stocks for the companies that clear it.
What makes up SJM's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is SJM's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.2% | — |
| 2024 | 7.8% | Rising |
| 2025 | -4.8% | Declining |
| 2026 | 2.5% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The J. M. Smucker Company's dividend safe?
Can The J. M. Smucker Company afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 205.6%. FCF covers the dividend 1.7x. 27 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
The J. M. Smucker Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.1B | $8.7B | $8.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.1B | −$1.2B | −$0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $0.8B | $0.7B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 33.5% | 38.8% | 32.9% | Stable |
Recent events that affect our SJM analysis
SJM earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.55. Revenue estimate: $2.26B. Our current Fair Value: $140.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
SJM analyst consensus: 53% bullish (10 of 19 analysts)
3 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $141.44 (13.5% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $140.00.
SJM beat EPS estimates by 46.2%
Reported EPS: $3.24 vs estimate $2.22. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $140.00 (12.3% above current price).
SJM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM paid $1.1200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 205.6%.
SJM beat EPS estimates by 5.0%
Reported EPS: $2.77 vs estimate $2.64. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $140.00 (12.3% above current price).
SJM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM paid $1.1000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 205.6%.
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM beat EPS estimates by 5.2%
Reported EPS: $2.38 vs estimate $2.26. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $140.00 (12.3% above current price).
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM paid $1.1000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 205.6%.
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM missed EPS estimates by 0.0%
Reported EPS: $2.10 vs estimate $2.10. Our Fair Value of $140.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SJM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM paid $1.1000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 205.6%.
SJM missed EPS estimates by 1.4%
Reported EPS: $1.90 vs estimate $1.93. Our Fair Value of $140.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
SJM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM paid $1.1000/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 205.6%.
SJM filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM beat EPS estimates by 2.8%
Reported EPS: $2.31 vs estimate $2.25. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $140.00 (12.3% above current price).
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM paid $1.0800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 205.6%.
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM beat EPS estimates by 10.3%
Reported EPS: $2.61 vs estimate $2.37. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $140.00 (12.3% above current price).
SJM filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SJM paid $1.0800/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: B. Payout ratio: 205.6%.
Common questions about The J. M. Smucker Company
What is The J. M. Smucker Company stock price today?
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) stock price is $124.66 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does The J. M. Smucker Company do?
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide.
What is The J. M. Smucker Company market cap?
The J. M. Smucker Company has a market capitalization of $13.32B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Defensive sector.
What sector and industry is SJM in?
The J. M. Smucker Company operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically within the Packaged Foods industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol SJM.
Is SJM stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, The J. M. Smucker Company trades 11.0% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $140.00
- Current Price: $124.66
- Valuation Zone: Buy Zone
What is SJM stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 16 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for The J. M. Smucker Company is $141.44, implying upside of 13.5% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $157.00
- Analyst Low Target: $114.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is The J. M. Smucker Company revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for The J. M. Smucker Company:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -1.5%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 16.8%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 1.1%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 1.2%
What are The J. M. Smucker Company's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.1B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 33.5% | Stable |
What is SJM's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 58.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 11.4x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is SJM stock?
The J. M. Smucker Company has a beta of 0.26, meaning it is less volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does The J. M. Smucker Company have?
The J. M. Smucker Company's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $43.2M
- Total Debt: $6.94B
- Net Cash Position: $-6.90B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is The J. M. Smucker Company's free cash flow?
The J. M. Smucker Company generated $1.46B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.91B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does The J. M. Smucker Company pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, The J. M. Smucker Company pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 3.5%
- Payout Ratio: 205.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 27
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -2.6%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: B
Is The J. M. Smucker Company at risk of going bankrupt?
The J. M. Smucker Company's Altman Z-Score is 1.32, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does The J. M. Smucker Company have a durable competitive advantage?
The J. M. Smucker Company scores 2.6/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 3/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is SJM's return on equity (ROE)?
The J. M. Smucker Company's return on equity is 3.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy SJM stock?
SJM shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol SJM
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is SJM a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies The J. M. Smucker Company as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of The J. M. Smucker Company?
The current CEO of The J. M. Smucker Company is Captain Mark T. Smucker.
What is SJM's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.14
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $10.88
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $10.69
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $9.01
Other Consumer Defensive companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Sep 7, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SJM analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings