The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Is The J. M. Smucker Company a safe investment right now?
The J. M. Smucker Company's Altman Z-Score of 1.15 places it in the distress zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $286.05, suggesting the stock may be undervalued by 66%. Moat rating: 2.6/5 stars.
Could The J. M. Smucker Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.15 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SJM's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.1197 | 1.2 | -0.14 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.146 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0105 | 3.3 | 0.03 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.8154 | 0.6 | 0.49 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.5689 | 1.0 | 0.57 |
How has SJM's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1.28 | Distress |
| 2017 | 0.97 | Distress |
| 2018 | 1.03 | Distress |
| 2019 | 1.76 | Distress |
| 2020 | 1.57 | Distress |
| 2021 | 1.61 | Distress |
| 2022 | 1.62 | Distress |
| 2023 | 1.8 | Gray |
| 2024 | 1.76 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.15 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from SJM's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What could The J. M. Smucker Company be worth? (High Uncertainty)
Fair value range: $162.40 — $541.16
Valuation Methods Used
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $182.45 | 50% | 18.1x avg PE (2 years) × $10.08 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $541.16 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $0.9B TTM FCF, 20.0% growth, 7.0% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $162.40 | 20% | TTM FCF × 28x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 20.0% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | -10.8% | Consensus (16 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 446.6% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | -2.1% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 0.5*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-7,445M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $0.9B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 106,648,319 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 7.0% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $133.50 | $98.66 | $162.49 | $71.19 |
| 2.5% | $154.56 | $113.34 | $188.90 | $80.96 |
| 5.0% | $178.71 | $130.12 | $219.27 | $92.06 |
| 7.5% | $211.66 | $152.64 | $261.05 | $106.63 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $0.9B | — |
| 2021 | $0.8B | +-12.8% |
| 2022 | $1.0B | +26.1% |
| 2023 | $1.3B | +27.7% |
| 2024 | $0.7B | +-42.9% |
| 2025 | $0.7B | +-0.3% |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does The J. M. Smucker Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.6/5.
What makes up SJM's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is SJM's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 11.5% | — |
| 2017 | 5.0% | Declining |
| 2018 | 8.1% | Rising |
| 2019 | 7.1% | Stable |
| 2020 | 8.1% | Stable |
| 2021 | 6.1% | Declining |
| 2022 | 8.7% | Rising |
| 2023 | 9.7% | Rising |
| 2024 | 7.3% | Declining |
| 2025 | 1.4% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The J. M. Smucker Company's dividend safe?
Can The J. M. Smucker Company afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 86.1%. FCF covers the dividend 4.2x. 27 consecutive years of payments.
The J. M. Smucker Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.5B | $8.0B | $7.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.1B | $0.6B | $0.8B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | $0.7B | $1.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 32.9% | 33.8% | 38.5% | Declining |
Common questions about The J. M. Smucker Company
Is The J. M. Smucker Company at risk of going bankrupt?
The J. M. Smucker Company's Altman Z-Score of 1.15 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is The J. M. Smucker Company's intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates The J. M. Smucker Company's intrinsic value at $286.05 per share. The current margin of safety is 66.4%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does The J. M. Smucker Company have a competitive moat?
The J. M. Smucker Company receives a moat rating of 2.6 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is The J. M. Smucker Company's dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in The J. M. Smucker Company, make sure you truly understand it.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SJM analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings