The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. a safe investment right now?
Trading at $75.86, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) in the Consumer Defensive sector does not have sufficient data for a reliable fair value estimate. An Altman Z-Score of 2.55 lands in the gray zone, signaling elevated uncertainty around financial health. Our moat rating stands at 3.0/5 stars (Narrow moat), indicating moderate competitive positioning. On the income side, EL currently pays a dividend with a safety grade of .
Could The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.55 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives EL's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0821 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.5868 | 1.4 | 0.82 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0343 | 3.3 | -0.11 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 1.7121 | 0.6 | 1.03 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.7202 | 1.0 | 0.72 |
How has EL's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.62 | Safe |
| 2023 | 2.87 | Gray |
| 2024 | 2.89 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.55 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from EL's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. actually worth?
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.0/5.
What makes up EL's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is EL's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 29.1% | — |
| 2023 | 12.1% | Declining |
| 2024 | 8.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | -6.1% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 471.4%. FCF covers the dividend 2.4x. 31 consecutive years of payments.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.3B | $15.6B | $17.7B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$1.1B | $0.4B | $2.4B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.7B | $1.4B | $2.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 74.0% | 71.7% | 75.7% | Stable |
Common questions about The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.55 places it in the gray zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
Why is there no fair value estimate for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.?
A reliable fair value estimate requires stable, positive free cash flow or earnings data. This stock may lack sufficient data, or it may be classified as speculative where traditional valuation does not apply.
Does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. have a competitive moat?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. receives a moat rating of 3.0 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
EL analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings