Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Is Costco Wholesale Corporation a safe investment right now?
Costco Wholesale Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 9.99 places it in the safe zone. Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $649.02, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 54%. Moat rating: 3.2/5 stars.
Could Costco Wholesale Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 9.99 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives COST's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0177 | 1.2 | -0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2554 | 1.4 | 0.36 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1176 | 3.3 | 0.39 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 9.5849 | 0.6 | 5.75 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 3.5118 | 1.0 | 3.51 |
How has COST's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 12.6 | Safe |
| 2017 | 13.43 | Safe |
| 2018 | 14.71 | Safe |
| 2019 | 13.82 | Safe |
| 2020 | 13.1 | Safe |
| 2021 | 11.4 | Safe |
| 2022 | 10.07 | Safe |
| 2023 | 10.17 | Safe |
| 2024 | 10.46 | Safe |
| 2025 | 9.99 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from COST's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What could Costco Wholesale Corporation be worth? (High Uncertainty)
Fair value range: $333.79 — $898.80
Valuation Methods Used
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $898.80 | 50% | 40.0x avg PE (4 years) × $22.47 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $442.87 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $6.7B TTM FCF, 13.5% growth, 9.5% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $333.79 | 20% | TTM FCF × 22x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 13.5% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 12.4% | Consensus (32 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 10.0% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 19.0% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.5% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 0.98*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $898M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $6.7B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 443,652,540 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 9.5% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $242.76 | $179.40 | $191.86 | $129.44 |
| 2.5% | $281.04 | $206.10 | $220.82 | $147.21 |
| 5.0% | $324.96 | $236.61 | $253.95 | $167.40 |
| 7.5% | $384.88 | $277.56 | $298.59 | $193.89 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | $1.6B | — |
| 2019 | $4.2B | +167.9% |
| 2020 | $2.8B | +-33.6% |
| 2021 | $3.4B | +19.7% |
| 2022 | $6.1B | +80.2% |
| 2023 | $5.4B | +-11.3% |
| 2024 | $3.5B | +-34.8% |
| 2025 | $6.7B | +92.7% |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does Costco Wholesale Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.2/5.
What makes up COST's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 5/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 1/5.
How stable is COST's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 20.0% | — |
| 2017 | 20.8% | Stable |
| 2018 | 15.5% | Declining |
| 2019 | 15.9% | Stable |
| 2020 | 15.8% | Stable |
| 2021 | 15.5% | Stable |
| 2022 | 16.3% | Stable |
| 2023 | 17.1% | Stable |
| 2024 | 17.2% | Stable |
| 2025 | 16.7% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Costco Wholesale Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Costco Wholesale Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 27.0%. FCF covers the dividend 1.1x. 23 consecutive years of payments.
Costco Wholesale Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $242.3B | $227.0B | $166.8B | Rising |
| Net Income | $6.3B | $5.8B | $4.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.7B | $3.5B | $6.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 12.8% | N/A | N/A | — |
Common questions about Costco Wholesale Corporation
Is Costco Wholesale Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Costco Wholesale Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 9.99 places it in the safe zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Costco Wholesale Corporation's intrinsic value based on DCF?
Our DCF model estimates Costco Wholesale Corporation's intrinsic value at $649.02 per share. The current margin of safety is -53.8%. This estimate is based on historical free cash flow trends and a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Does Costco Wholesale Corporation have a competitive moat?
Costco Wholesale Corporation receives a moat rating of 3.2 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Costco Wholesale Corporation's dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in Costco Wholesale Corporation, make sure you truly understand it.
A deep understanding of a company's fundamentals, risk profile, and competitive position dramatically increases your investment accuracy and odds of success.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
COST analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings