Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Basic Materials · Building Materials
Is Vulcan Materials Company a safe investment right now?
Vulcan Materials Company's Altman Z-Score of 4.09 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $219.17 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 3.3/5 stars.
Could Vulcan Materials Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.09 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives VMC's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.0965 | 1.2 | 0.12 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3347 | 1.4 | 0.47 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0976 | 3.3 | 0.32 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 4.5057 | 0.6 | 2.7 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4755 | 1.0 | 0.48 |
How has VMC's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.25 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.58 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.65 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.09 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from VMC's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Vulcan Materials Company actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $7.69 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $8.11 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $9.26 | 22 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 33.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 28.5x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Declining | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $326.73 (22 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Vulcan Materials Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.3/5.
What makes up VMC's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is VMC's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8.8% | — |
| 2023 | 12.7% | Rising |
| 2024 | 10.2% | Declining |
| 2025 | 12.7% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Vulcan Materials Company's dividend safe?
Can Vulcan Materials Company afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 23.6%. FCF covers the dividend 2.5x. 40 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
Vulcan Materials Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.9B | $7.4B | $7.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.1B | $0.9B | $0.6B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | $0.8B | $0.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 27.4% | 27.0% | 21.3% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our VMC analysis
VMC earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.62. Revenue estimate: $2.14B. Our current Fair Value: $219.17 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
VMC analyst consensus: 65% bullish (15 of 23 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $326.73 (15.4% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $219.17.
VMC paid $0.5200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.6%.
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC beat EPS estimates by 15.6%
Reported EPS: $1.26 vs estimate $1.09. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $219.17 (22.6% below current price).
VMC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC paid $0.5200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.6%.
VMC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC missed EPS estimates by 19.5%
Reported EPS: $1.70 vs estimate $2.11. Our Fair Value of $219.17 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC paid $0.4900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.6%.
VMC beat EPS estimates by 4.5%
Reported EPS: $2.84 vs estimate $2.72. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $219.17 (22.6% below current price).
VMC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC paid $0.4900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.6%.
VMC missed EPS estimates by 2.8%
Reported EPS: $2.45 vs estimate $2.52. Our Fair Value of $219.17 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
VMC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC paid $0.4900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.6%.
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC beat EPS estimates by 31.6%
Reported EPS: $1.00 vs estimate $0.76. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $219.17 (22.6% below current price).
VMC filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC paid $0.4900/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 23.6%.
VMC filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
VMC beat EPS estimates by 23.7%
Reported EPS: $2.17 vs estimate $1.75. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $219.17 (22.6% below current price).
VMC filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Vulcan Materials Company
What is Vulcan Materials Company stock price today?
Vulcan Materials Company (VMC) stock price is $283.06 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Vulcan Materials Company do?
Vulcan Materials Company produces and supplies construction aggregates in the United States. It operates through three segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, and Concrete. It provides crushed stone, sand and gravel, sand, and other aggregates for use in construction and maintenance of highways, streets, and other public works, as well as in the construction of housing and commercial, industrial, and other nonresidential facilities; aggregates that are used as ballast for construction and maintenance of railroad tracks; riprap and jetty stones for use in erosion control along roads and waterways; asphalt mix; asphalt construction paving services; and ready-mixed concrete products.
What is Vulcan Materials Company market cap?
Vulcan Materials Company has a market capitalization of $36.73B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Basic Materials sector.
What sector and industry is VMC in?
Vulcan Materials Company operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically within the Building Materials industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol VMC.
Is VMC stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Vulcan Materials Company trades 29.1% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $219.17
- Current Price: $283.06
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is VMC stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 22 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Vulcan Materials Company is $326.73, implying upside of 15.4% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $365.00
- Analyst Low Target: $198.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Vulcan Materials Company revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Vulcan Materials Company:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 2.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 15.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 6.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 16.7%
What are Vulcan Materials Company's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.9B | Rising |
| Net Income | $1.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 27.4% | Rising |
What is VMC's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 33.5x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 26.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 28.5x
How volatile is VMC stock?
Vulcan Materials Company has a beta of 1.09, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Vulcan Materials Company have?
Vulcan Materials Company's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $140.2M
- Total Debt: $5.19B
- Net Cash Position: $-5.05B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Vulcan Materials Company's free cash flow?
Vulcan Materials Company generated $244.4M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $1.80B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Vulcan Materials Company pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Vulcan Materials Company pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.7%
- Payout Ratio: 23.6%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 40
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -6.8%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Vulcan Materials Company at risk of going bankrupt?
Vulcan Materials Company's Altman Z-Score is 4.09, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Vulcan Materials Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Vulcan Materials Company scores 3.3/5 stars (Narrow moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 3/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is VMC's return on equity (ROE)?
Vulcan Materials Company's return on equity is 13.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy VMC stock?
VMC shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol VMC
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is VMC a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Vulcan Materials Company as Value Investment. It exhibits consistent profitability, reasonable valuation, and financial stability — characteristics of a traditional value investment.
Who is the CEO of Vulcan Materials Company?
The current CEO of Vulcan Materials Company is Mr. Ronnie A. Pruitt.
What is VMC's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $8.44
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $10.80
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $9.26
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $10.80
Other Basic Materials companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
VMC analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings