Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Is Coterra Energy Inc. a safe investment right now?
Trading at $31.85, Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) in the Energy sector carries a FairValueLabs fair value estimate of $30.11 — a margin of safety of -5.8%, placing it in the Fairly Valued. An Altman Z-Score of 2.61 lands in the gray zone, signaling elevated uncertainty around financial health. Our moat rating stands at 3.1/5 stars (Narrow moat), indicating moderate competitive positioning. On the income side, CTRA currently pays a dividend with a safety grade of .
Could Coterra Energy Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.61 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives CTRA's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.012 | 1.2 | 0.01 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.2844 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1024 | 3.3 | 0.34 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.5721 | 0.6 | 1.54 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3154 | 1.0 | 0.32 |
How has CTRA's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.63 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.0 | Safe |
| 2024 | 2.68 | Gray |
| 2025 | 2.61 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from CTRA's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Coterra Energy Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.53 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.25 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.95 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 14.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 11.9x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $37.19 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Coterra Energy Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.1/5.
What makes up CTRA's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is CTRA's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 35.4% | — |
| 2023 | 14.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | 8.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | 13.3% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Coterra Energy Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can Coterra Energy Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 39.3%. FCF covers the dividend 1.9x. 37 consecutive years of payments.
Coterra Energy Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.6B | $5.5B | $9.1B | Declining |
| Net Income | $1.7B | $1.1B | $4.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.6B | $1.0B | $3.7B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 41.5% | 36.5% | 66.3% | Declining |
Common questions about Coterra Energy Inc.
Is Coterra Energy Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Coterra Energy Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.61 places it in the gray zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Coterra Energy Inc.'s estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates Coterra Energy Inc.'s fair value at $30.11 per share. The current margin of safety is -5.8%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does Coterra Energy Inc. have a competitive moat?
Coterra Energy Inc. receives a moat rating of 3.1 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is Coterra Energy Inc.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
CTRA analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings