Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Is Antero Resources Corporation a safe investment right now?
Trading at $37.16, Antero Resources Corporation (AR) in the Energy sector carries a FairValueLabs fair value estimate of $44.98 — a margin of safety of 17.4%, placing it in the Strong Buy Zone. An Altman Z-Score of 1.98 lands in the gray zone, signaling elevated uncertainty around financial health. Our moat rating stands at 2.7/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding), suggesting limited pricing power in a competitive landscape.
Could Antero Resources Corporation go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.98 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives AR's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0507 | 1.2 | -0.06 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.127 | 1.4 | 0.18 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0735 | 3.3 | 0.24 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 2.0733 | 0.6 | 1.24 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3785 | 1.0 | 0.38 |
How has AR's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.16 | Gray |
| 2023 | 1.53 | Distress |
| 2024 | 1.56 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.98 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from AR's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Antero Resources Corporation actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $2.94 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.03 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $4.30 | 21 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 18.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 15.3x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $49.38 (21 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Antero Resources Corporation have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.7/5.
What makes up AR's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is AR's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 32.3% | — |
| 2023 | 5.7% | Declining |
| 2024 | 1.1% | Declining |
| 2025 | 10.9% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Antero Resources Corporation's dividend safe?
Antero Resources Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B | $4.1B | $8.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | $0.6B | $0.1B | $1.9B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.2B | $0.7B | $2.9B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 22.1% | 8.0% | 55.3% | Declining |
Common questions about Antero Resources Corporation
Is Antero Resources Corporation at risk of going bankrupt?
Antero Resources Corporation's Altman Z-Score of 1.98 places it in the gray zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Antero Resources Corporation's estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates Antero Resources Corporation's fair value at $44.98 per share. The current margin of safety is 17.4%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does Antero Resources Corporation have a competitive moat?
Antero Resources Corporation receives a moat rating of 2.7 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does Antero Resources Corporation pay a dividend?
Antero Resources Corporation does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AR analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings