Exelon Corporation (EXC) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Electric
Is Exelon Corporation a safe investment right now?
Exelon Corporation is in the Utilities sector — Altman Z-Score does not apply to this type of company. Our valuation model estimates fair value at $32.89, suggesting the stock is overvalued by 41%.
Why the Altman Z-Score does not apply to Exelon Corporation
The Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing and non-financial companies. It uses ratios like Working Capital / Total Assets and Revenue / Total Assets that produce misleading results for Utilities companies.
- Banks hold massive assets (loans) that inflate Total Assets, making WC/TA nearly zero — a false distress signal
- Utilities carry high regulated debt by design — the model misreads leverage as risk
- REITs use Funds From Operations (FFO), not Free Cash Flow — standard cash flow analysis doesn't apply
Altman Z-Score is designed for manufacturing companies and does not apply to banks, utilities, or REITs.
Note: A sector-specific financial health model for Utilities companies is planned for a future update.
What could Exelon Corporation be worth? (High Uncertainty)
Fair value range: $7.67 — $48.03
Valuation Methods Used
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $48.03 | 50% | 15.8x avg PE (4 years) × $3.04 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $7.67 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $0.8B TTM FCF, 20.0% growth, 7.0% WACC |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 20.0% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 3.0% | Consensus (17 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 6.6% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 75.2% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 0.51*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-49,620M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $0.8B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,023,175,091 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 7.0% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $12.27 | $9.07 | $14.94 | $6.54 |
| 2.5% | $14.21 | $10.42 | $17.36 | $7.44 |
| 5.0% | $16.43 | $11.96 | $20.16 | $8.46 |
| 7.5% | $19.46 | $14.03 | $24.00 | $9.80 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $−1.6B | — |
| 2017 | $−0.0B | N/A |
| 2018 | $−0.1B | N/A |
| 2019 | $−0.1B | N/A |
| 2020 | $1.1B | N/A |
| 2021 | $−0.6B | N/A |
| 2022 | $−3.8B | N/A |
| 2023 | $−5.0B | N/A |
| 2024 | $−2.3B | N/A |
| 2025 | $−2.7B | N/A |
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Why standard moat analysis does not apply to Exelon Corporation
Our standard moat model uses ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and switching costs — metrics designed for product and service companies. Utilities companies compete on fundamentally different dimensions.
- Banks — moat comes from deposit cost advantage, net interest margin stability, and fee income diversification
- Utilities — moat is a regulatory monopoly with guaranteed rate of return on invested capital
- REITs — moat comes from property portfolio quality, location, tenant mix, and cap rate advantages
Standard moat analysis (ROIC/gross margin/switching costs) does not reliably apply to Utilities companies. Banks compete on net interest margin, utilities on regulated returns, and REITs on occupancy and cap rates.
Note: A sector-specific competitive analysis for Utilities companies is planned for a future update.
Is Exelon Corporation's dividend safe?
Can Exelon Corporation afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 58.6%. FCF covers the dividend 0.2x. 54 consecutive years of payments.
Exelon Corporation's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.7B | $19.1B | $16.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.6B | $2.7B | N/A | — |
| Free Cash Flow | −$2.7B | −$2.3B | −$3.8B | Rising |
Common questions about Exelon Corporation
Why doesn't Exelon Corporation have an Altman Z-Score?
The Altman Z-Score was designed for manufacturing companies and uses ratios like Working Capital/Total Assets and Revenue/Total Assets. These ratios produce misleading results for banks, utilities, and REITs, whose balance sheets are structured fundamentally differently. We exclude Z-Score for these sectors to avoid presenting inaccurate data.
What is Exelon Corporation's estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates Exelon Corporation's fair value at $32.89 per share. The current margin of safety is -41.1%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Why doesn't Exelon Corporation have a moat rating?
Our standard moat analysis uses ROIC, gross margins, and switching costs — metrics designed for product/service companies. Banks compete on net interest margins and deposit costs, utilities have regulated monopoly moats, and REITs compete on property location and occupancy rates. These require sector-specific models that we plan to add in the future.
Is Exelon Corporation's dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in Exelon Corporation, make sure you truly understand it.
A deep understanding of a company's fundamentals, risk profile, and competitive position dramatically increases your investment accuracy and odds of success.
Pass the quiz to earn the EXC Certified Value Investor badge.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
EXC analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings