The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NGM · Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Is The Trade Desk, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Trading at $23.20, The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) in the Communication Services sector carries a FairValueLabs fair value estimate of $30.87 — a margin of safety of 24.9%, placing it in the Strong Buy Zone. An Altman Z-Score of 2.85 lands in the gray zone, signaling elevated uncertainty around financial health. Our moat rating stands at 2.7/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding), suggesting limited pricing power in a competitive landscape.
Could The Trade Desk, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 2.85 places the company in the gray zone (1.8-3.0), warranting closer scrutiny.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives TTD's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3242 | 1.2 | 0.39 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.096 | 1.4 | -0.13 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0958 | 3.3 | 0.32 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 3.0099 | 0.6 | 1.81 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.4707 | 1.0 | 0.47 |
How has TTD's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.08 | Safe |
| 2023 | 3.46 | Safe |
| 2024 | 3.29 | Safe |
| 2025 | 2.85 | Gray |
Source: Calculated from TTD's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is The Trade Desk, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.36 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $0.90 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $2.06 | 33 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 26.7x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 22.7x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $30.61 (33 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does The Trade Desk, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.7/5.
What makes up TTD's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is TTD's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.4% | — |
| 2023 | 9.3% | Rising |
| 2024 | 14.5% | Rising |
| 2025 | 23.7% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is The Trade Desk, Inc.'s dividend safe?
The Trade Desk, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | $2.4B | $1.6B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.4B | $0.4B | $0.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.8B | $0.6B | $0.5B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 78.6% | 80.7% | 82.2% | Stable |
Common questions about The Trade Desk, Inc.
Is The Trade Desk, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
The Trade Desk, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 2.85 places it in the gray zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is The Trade Desk, Inc.'s estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates The Trade Desk, Inc.'s fair value at $30.87 per share. The current margin of safety is 24.9%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does The Trade Desk, Inc. have a competitive moat?
The Trade Desk, Inc. receives a moat rating of 2.7 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does The Trade Desk, Inc. pay a dividend?
The Trade Desk, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
TTD analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings