Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Is Spotify Technology S.A. a safe investment right now?
Trading at $522.44, Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) in the Communication Services sector carries a FairValueLabs fair value estimate of $459.04 — a margin of safety of -13.8%, placing it in the Fairly Valued. An Altman Z-Score of 11.57 confirms the company is in the safe zone — financial distress is unlikely near-term. Our moat rating stands at 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding), suggesting limited pricing power in a competitive landscape.
Could Spotify Technology S.A. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 11.57 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SPOT's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2938 | 1.2 | 0.35 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.0554 | 1.4 | -0.08 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1502 | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 16.0875 | 0.6 | 9.65 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.1446 | 1.0 | 1.14 |
How has SPOT's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13.18 | Safe |
| 2023 | 11.95 | Safe |
| 2024 | 11.68 | Safe |
| 2025 | 11.57 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from SPOT's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is Spotify Technology S.A. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $12.44 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $12.02 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $13.06 | 39 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 43.5x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 36.9x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Growing | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $643.41 (39 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Spotify Technology S.A. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up SPOT's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is SPOT's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -9.3% | — |
| 2023 | -12.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | 19.5% | Rising |
| 2025 | 23.0% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Spotify Technology S.A.'s dividend safe?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.2B | $15.7B | $11.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.2B | $1.1B | −$0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.9B | $2.3B | $0.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 32.0% | 30.1% | 24.9% | Rising |
Common questions about Spotify Technology S.A.
Is Spotify Technology S.A. at risk of going bankrupt?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s Altman Z-Score of 11.57 places it in the safe zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is Spotify Technology S.A.'s estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates Spotify Technology S.A.'s fair value at $459.04 per share. The current margin of safety is -13.8%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does Spotify Technology S.A. have a competitive moat?
Spotify Technology S.A. receives a moat rating of 2.9 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does Spotify Technology S.A. pay a dividend?
Spotify Technology S.A. does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SPOT analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings