S&P Global Inc. (SPGI) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Is S&P Global Inc. a safe investment right now?
S&P Global Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.39 places it in the safe zone. Our valuation model estimates fair value at $447.30, suggesting the stock may be undervalued by 1%. Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could S&P Global Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 4.39 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SPGI's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | -0.0155 | 1.2 | -0.02 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3483 | 1.4 | 0.49 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0668 | 3.3 | 0.22 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 5.8244 | 0.6 | 3.49 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.2075 | 1.0 | 0.21 |
How has SPGI's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 16.74 | Safe |
| 2016 | 12.72 | Safe |
| 2017 | 13.89 | Safe |
| 2018 | 14.26 | Safe |
| 2019 | 14.46 | Safe |
| 2020 | 12.33 | Safe |
| 2021 | 11.75 | Safe |
| 2022 | 11.45 | Safe |
| 2023 | 4.36 | Safe |
| 2025 | 4.39 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from SPGI's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is S&P Global Inc. actually worth?
Fair value range: $256.42 — $637.63
Valuation Methods
| Method | Fair Value | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical PE × Forward EPS | $637.63 | 50% | 36.2x avg PE (4 years) × $17.61 forward EPS |
| DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) | $257.34 | 30% | Two-stage DCF: $4.9B TTM FCF, 7.9% growth, 10.3% WACC |
| EV/FCF Multiple | $256.42 | 20% | TTM FCF × 18x multiple + net cash |
Assumptions & Data Sources
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| FCF Growth Rate (Stage 1) | 7.9% | 70% analyst consensus + 30% historical |
| Analyst EPS Growth (This Year) | 10.0% | Consensus (21 analysts) |
| Analyst EPS Growth (Next Year) | 12.5% | Consensus |
| Historical 5Y FCF CAGR | 0% | SEC EDGAR |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | Long-term GDP proxy |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.3% | CAPM (Rf=4.3% + 1.2*5.5%) |
| Net Cash / (Debt) | $-11,905M | Balance sheet |
| Base FCF (TTM) | $4.9B | Trailing 12 months |
| Shares Outstanding | 295,979,612 | Latest |
Sensitivity Analysis
| Growth Rate | 8% WACC | 10% WACC | 10.3% WACC | 13% WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | $265.29 | $196.05 | $188.71 | $141.46 |
| 2.5% | $307.13 | $225.23 | $216.56 | $160.88 |
| 5.0% | $355.13 | $258.57 | $248.37 | $182.94 |
| 7.5% | $420.61 | $303.32 | $290.96 | $211.88 |
Free Cash Flow History
| Year | FCF | Growth |
|---|
Source: FCF data from SEC EDGAR filings. Price via Yahoo Finance.
Does S&P Global Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up SPGI's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 3/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 2/5.
How stable is SPGI's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 47.6% | — |
| 2016 | 2.1% | Declining |
| 2017 | 31.6% | Rising |
| 2018 | 53.8% | Rising |
| 2019 | 37.9% | Declining |
| 2020 | 33.8% | Declining |
| 2021 | 36.0% | Rising |
| 2022 | 32.3% | Declining |
| 2023 | 7.6% | Declining |
| 2025 | 7.5% | Stable |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is S&P Global Inc.'s dividend safe?
Can S&P Global Inc. afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 26.2%. FCF covers the dividend 0.0x. 42 consecutive years of payments.
S&P Global Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.5B | $8.3B | $6.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.6B | $3.0B | $2.1B | Rising |
Common questions about S&P Global Inc.
Is S&P Global Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
S&P Global Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 4.39 places it in the safe zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
What is S&P Global Inc.'s estimated fair value?
Our valuation model estimates S&P Global Inc.'s fair value at $447.30 per share. The current margin of safety is 1.0%. This estimate uses a PE-based approach with analyst consensus earnings.
Does S&P Global Inc. have a competitive moat?
S&P Global Inc. receives a moat rating of 2.3 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Is S&P Global Inc.'s dividend safe?
Our dividend safety analysis examines payout ratio, free cash flow coverage, and the company's streak of consecutive dividend payments to determine whether the current payout is sustainable.
Before you invest in S&P Global Inc., make sure you truly understand it.
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SPGI analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings