Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) stock is $235.69, versus a market price of $140.00 — Watch — Analyst Anchor. Analyst Consensus (16 analysts) — EPS model not applicable at negative earnings.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s Altman Z-Score of 21.5 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $235.69 (Watch — Analyst Anchor). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is part of the Cloud Hyperscalers & Frontier Infrastructure group in our AI coverage — compare its fair value against every other AI, cloud, and quantum stock through a value investing lens.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Investment Thesis — a Value Investor's View
SpaceX arrives on public markets as two businesses fused together: Starlink, a satellite broadband utility with genuine subscription economics and a launch-cost moat no competitor can currently touch, and Starship, a capex program of historic scale whose payoff is real but unscheduled. Reported earnings are negative by choice — cash from Starlink is recycled into rockets — so our model refuses to print an earnings-based fair value and anchors to analyst consensus instead, clearly labeled. Treat any fair value here as a placeholder for a distribution of outcomes wider than anything else we cover: the bull case is a space-economy monopoly; the bear case is a capital-intensive utility priced like a software company. Position sizing, not price targets, is the risk control that matters.
Could Space Exploration Technologies Corp. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 21.5 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives SPCX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1037 | 1.2 | 0.12 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.4022 | 1.4 | -0.56 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0247 | 3.3 | -0.08 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 36.3607 | 0.6 | 21.82 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.2028 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
How has SPCX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35.08 | Safe |
| 2025 | 21.5 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from SPCX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Trailing P/E | 0.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 0.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | N/A | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $235.69 (16 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Space Exploration Technologies Corp. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up SPCX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is SPCX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9.8% | — |
| 2025 | -8.9% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s dividend safe?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.7B | $14.0B | N/A | — |
| Net Income | −$4.9B | $0.8B | N/A | — |
| Free Cash Flow | −$14.1B | −$5.4B | N/A | — |
| Gross Margin | 49.4% | 43.0% | N/A | — |
Recent events that affect our SPCX analysis
SPCX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.21. Revenue estimate: $13.13B. Our current Fair Value: $235.69 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
SPCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SPCX analyst consensus: 80% bullish (28 of 35 analysts)
6 Strong Buy, 22 Buy, 5 Hold, 2 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $235.69 (68.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $235.69.
SPCX beat EPS estimates by 68.9%
Reported EPS: $-0.09 vs estimate $-0.29. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $235.69 (68.3% above current price).
SPCX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
SPCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SPCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SPCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SPCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SPCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SPCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
SPCX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
What is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. stock price today?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) stock price is $140.00 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Space Exploration Technologies Corp. do?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. provides satellite-based broadband services in the United States, Ireland, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three operating segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI.
What is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. market cap?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. has a market capitalization of $1.85T, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Industrials sector.
What sector and industry is SPCX in?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. operates in the Industrials sector, specifically within the Aerospace & Defense industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol SPCX.
Is SPCX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. trades 40.6% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $235.69
- Current Price: $140.00
- Valuation Zone: Watch — Analyst Anchor
What is SPCX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 16 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is $235.69, implying upside of 68.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $800.00
- Analyst Low Target: $62.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Space Exploration Technologies Corp.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): nan%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 101.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 114.2%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 1331.0%
What are Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.7B | — |
| Net Income | −$4.9B | — |
| Free Cash Flow | −$14.1B | — |
| Gross Margin | 49.4% | — |
What is SPCX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 75.6x
How volatile is SPCX stock?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. has a beta of 1.00, meaning it is roughly in line with overall market volatility. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Space Exploration Technologies Corp. have?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $100.01B
- Total Debt: $39.71B
- Net Cash Position: $60.30B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
Does Space Exploration Technologies Corp. pay a dividend?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. at risk of going bankrupt?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s Altman Z-Score is 21.50, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Space Exploration Technologies Corp. have a durable competitive advantage?
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
How do I buy SPCX stock?
SPCX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol SPCX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is SPCX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Space Exploration Technologies Corp. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Space Exploration Technologies Corp.?
The current CEO of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. is Mr. Elon R. Musk.
What is SPCX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-1.10
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $1.85
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $0.09
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $1.32
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
SPCX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings