Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Is Modine Manufacturing Company a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) stock is $187.20, versus a market price of $209.50 — Fairly Valued. Predicted EPS $4.68 x 40.0 Fair PE.
Modine Manufacturing Company's Altman Z-Score of 6.81 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $187.20 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Modine Manufacturing Company is part of the Powering AI — Nuclear, Utilities, Cooling & Electrical group in our AI coverage — compare its fair value against every other AI, cloud, and quantum stock through a value investing lens.
Could Modine Manufacturing Company go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 6.81 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives MOD's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2569 | 1.2 | 0.31 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.3606 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0815 | 3.3 | 0.27 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 7.5602 | 0.6 | 4.54 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.1894 | 1.0 | 1.19 |
How has MOD's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9.39 | Safe |
| 2024 | 8.54 | Safe |
| 2025 | 9.39 | Safe |
| 2026 | 6.81 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from MOD's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Modine Manufacturing Company Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $4.68 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $2.26 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $7.64 | 7 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 77.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $310.29 (7 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Modine Manufacturing Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up MOD's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is MOD's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 15.4% | — |
| 2024 | 20.2% | Rising |
| 2025 | 22.2% | Rising |
| 2026 | 13.4% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Modine Manufacturing Company's dividend safe?
Modine Manufacturing Company's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.2B | $2.6B | $2.3B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.1B | $0.2B | $0.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.1B | $0.1B | $0.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 23.0% | 24.9% | 17.0% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our MOD analysis
MOD earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.47. Revenue estimate: $963.0M. Our current Fair Value: $187.20 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
MOD analyst consensus: 100% bullish (8 of 8 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $310.29 (48.1% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $187.20.
MOD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD beat EPS estimates by 20.0%
Reported EPS: $1.53 vs estimate $1.27. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $187.20 (10.6% below current price).
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD beat EPS estimates by 10.0%
Reported EPS: $1.71 vs estimate $1.55. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $187.20 (10.6% below current price).
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD beat EPS estimates by 19.7%
Reported EPS: $1.19 vs estimate $0.99. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $187.20 (10.6% below current price).
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD beat EPS estimates by 5.0%
Reported EPS: $1.06 vs estimate $1.01. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $187.20 (10.6% below current price).
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD beat EPS estimates by 14.8%
Reported EPS: $1.06 vs estimate $0.92. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $187.20 (10.6% below current price).
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD beat EPS estimates by 17.3%
Reported EPS: $1.12 vs estimate $0.96. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $187.20 (10.6% below current price).
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
MOD beat EPS estimates by 16.5%
Reported EPS: $0.92 vs estimate $0.79. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $187.20 (10.6% below current price).
MOD filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Modine Manufacturing Company
What is Modine Manufacturing Company stock price today?
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) stock price is $209.50 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Modine Manufacturing Company do?
Modine Manufacturing Company designs, engineers, tests, manufactures, and sells mission-critical thermal solutions in the United States, Canada, Italy, Hungary, the United Kingdom, China, and internationally. It offers heat transfer products, including round tube plate fin construction; gas-fired, hydronic, electric, and oil fired unit heaters; roof-mounted direct- and indirect-fired makeup air units, duct furnaces, infrared units, and perimeter heating products; single packaged unit ventilators, modular chillers, air handler and condensing units, and ceiling cassettes; evaporator unit coolers, remote condensers, fluid coolers, gas coolers, and dry and brine coolers; and motor and generator cooling coils, transformer oil coolers, radiators, dryers, and industrial heat exchangers. It also provides data center products that consists of IT cooling solutions, including chillers, dry coolers, precision air handling units, computer room air conditioning, computer room air handler units, fan walls, rear-door heat exchangers, coolant distribution units, and immersion solutions, as well as sells replacement parts, maintenance service and control solutions for existing equipment and new building management controls and systems.
What is Modine Manufacturing Company market cap?
Modine Manufacturing Company has a market capitalization of $11.13B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
What sector and industry is MOD in?
Modine Manufacturing Company operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically within the Auto Parts industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MOD.
Is MOD stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Modine Manufacturing Company trades 11.9% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $187.20
- Current Price: $209.50
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is MOD stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 7 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Modine Manufacturing Company is $310.29, implying upside of 48.1% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $355.00
- Analyst Low Target: $280.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Modine Manufacturing Company revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Modine Manufacturing Company:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 27.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 52.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 24.3%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 46.3%
What are Modine Manufacturing Company's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 23.0% | Rising |
What is MOD's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 77.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 18.7x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is MOD stock?
Modine Manufacturing Company has a beta of 1.76, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Modine Manufacturing Company have?
Modine Manufacturing Company's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $95.3M
- Total Debt: $671.4M
- Net Cash Position: $-576.1M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Modine Manufacturing Company's free cash flow?
Modine Manufacturing Company generated $-73.7M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $262.4M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Modine Manufacturing Company pay a dividend?
Modine Manufacturing Company does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Modine Manufacturing Company at risk of going bankrupt?
Modine Manufacturing Company's Altman Z-Score is 6.81, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Modine Manufacturing Company have a durable competitive advantage?
Modine Manufacturing Company scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is MOD's return on equity (ROE)?
Modine Manufacturing Company's return on equity is 13.1%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy MOD stock?
MOD shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol MOD
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is MOD a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Modine Manufacturing Company as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Modine Manufacturing Company?
The current CEO of Modine Manufacturing Company is Mr. Neil D. Brinker.
What is MOD's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $2.69
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $11.18
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $7.64
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $11.18
Other Consumer Cyclical companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
MOD analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings