Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT) 종목 분석 — 적정가치·리스크·해자 평가
NYQ · Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Spotify Technology S.A.는 지금 안전한 투자처인가?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s Altman Z-Score of 11.58 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $454.49 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Spotify Technology S.A.는 파산할 가능성이 있는가? Altman Z-Score 분석
Z-Score of 11.58 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- 1.8 미만 — 위험 구간(파산 리스크 높음)
- 1.8~3.0 — 회색 구간(불확실성 높음)
- 3.0 초과 — 안전 구간(재무 건전)
SPOT의 Z-Score를 구성하는 요인은?
| 구성 요소 | 산식 | 수치 | 가중치 | 기여도 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2938 | 1.2 | 0.35 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.0554 | 1.4 | -0.08 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.1502 | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 16.1011 | 0.6 | 9.66 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.1446 | 1.0 | 1.14 |
SPOT의 재무 건전성은 어떻게 변화해 왔는가?
| 연도 | Z-Score | 구간 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13.19 | 안전 |
| 2023 | 11.96 | 안전 |
| 2024 | 11.69 | 안전 |
| 2025 | 11.58 | 안전 |
출처: SPOT의 SEC EDGAR 최신 10-K 기반 산출.
Spotify Technology S.A.의 진정한 가치는 얼마인가?
산출 방법
| 입력값 | 수치 | 출처 |
|---|---|---|
| 예상 EPS(α) | $12.66 | 독자 모델: 공시 실적값 + 애널리스트 컨센서스(α 가중) |
| 전년도 EPS | $12.39 | 연차보고서(SEC EDGAR) |
| 애널리스트 컨센서스 EPS(금년도) | $13.06 | 39명의 애널리스트 컨센서스 |
| 실적 PER | 42.2x | 현재 시장 프라이싱 |
| 적정 PER(β 디스카운트) | 35.9x | 실적 PER을 가치 디스카운트 계수 β로 조정 후 상한 설정 |
| 실적 트렌드(γ) | 안정 | 방향성 시그널: 예상 EPS와 실적 EPS 비교 |
월가 참고치: 애널리스트 컨센서스 목표주가는 $641.15(39명의 애널리스트). 참고치이며 당사 밸류에이션 모델에는 사용하지 않습니다.
출처: 실적 데이터는 SEC EDGAR 제출 서류, 시장 데이터는 Yahoo Finance. 최근 분기가 반영되지 않았을 수 있습니다.
Spotify Technology S.A.는 지속적인 경쟁우위를 보유하고 있는가?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
SPOT의 해자 점수를 구성하는 요인은?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
SPOT의 투하자본수익률은 얼마나 안정적인가?
| 연도 | ROIC | 트렌드 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -9.3% | — |
| 2023 | -12.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | 19.5% | Rising |
| 2025 | 23.0% | Rising |
출처: ROIC는 SEC EDGAR 제출 서류 기반 산출.
Spotify Technology S.A.의 배당은 안전한가?
Spotify Technology S.A.의 주요 재무 지표
| 지표 | 최신 | 1년 전 | 3년 전 | 트렌드 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.2B | $15.7B | $11.7B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.2B | $1.1B | −$0.4B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.9B | $2.3B | $0.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 32.0% | 30.1% | 24.9% | Rising |
SPOT의 분석에 영향을 미치는 최근 이벤트
SPOT 실적 발표 예정
실적 발표 예정. 컨센서스 EPS 예상치: $2.95. 매출 예상치: $4.52B. 당사의 현재 적정가치: $454.49 — 예상치를 크게 상회하거나 하회하면 추정치가 변동될 수 있습니다.
SPOT 애널리스트 컨센서스: 83% 강세 (34/41명)
11 강력 매수, 23 매수, 7 중립, 0 매도, 0 강력 매도. 컨센서스 목표가: $641.15 (22.6% 상승 여력). 당사 독자 적정가치와 비교: $454.49.
SPOT EPS 예상치 59.4% 상회
실제 EPS: $4.43 예상치 $2.78. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $454.49 (13.1% 현재 주가 대비 하회).
SPOT EPS 예상치 62.8% 상회
실제 EPS: $3.28 예상치 $2.02. 양호한 실적으로 당사의 적정가치 $454.49 (13.1% 현재 주가 대비 하회).
SPOT EPS 예상치 121.2% 하회
실제 EPS: $-0.42 예상치 $1.98. 당사의 적정가치 $454.49 추세가 지속되면 하향 조정 압력이 가해질 수 있습니다.
SPOT EPS 예상치 54.0% 하회
실제 EPS: $1.07 예상치 $2.33. 당사의 적정가치 $454.49 추세가 지속되면 하향 조정 압력이 가해질 수 있습니다.
SPOT EPS 예상치 12.6% 하회
실제 EPS: $1.76 예상치 $2.01. 당사의 적정가치 $454.49 추세가 지속되면 하향 조정 압력이 가해질 수 있습니다.
Spotify Technology S.A.에 대한 자주 묻는 질문
What is Spotify Technology S.A. stock price today?
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) stock price is $522.88 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Spotify Technology S.A. do?
Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners.
What is Spotify Technology S.A. market cap?
Spotify Technology S.A. has a market capitalization of $107.65B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Communication Services sector.
What sector and industry is SPOT in?
Spotify Technology S.A. operates in the Communication Services sector, specifically within the Internet Content & Information industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol SPOT.
Is SPOT stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Spotify Technology S.A. trades 15.0% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $454.49
- Current Price: $522.88
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is SPOT stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 39 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Spotify Technology S.A. is $641.15, implying upside of 22.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $800.66
- Analyst Low Target: $414.44
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Spotify Technology S.A. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Spotify Technology S.A.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 13.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 24.3%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 13.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 25.5%
What are Spotify Technology S.A.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $2.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.9B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 32.0% | Rising |
What is SPOT's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 42.2x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 27.2x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 35.9x
How volatile is SPOT stock?
Spotify Technology S.A. has a beta of 1.70, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Spotify Technology S.A. have?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $7.72B
- Total Debt: $1.96B
- Net Cash Position: $5.76B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Spotify Technology S.A.'s free cash flow?
Spotify Technology S.A. generated $675.4M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $2.93B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Spotify Technology S.A. pay a dividend?
Spotify Technology S.A. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Spotify Technology S.A. at risk of going bankrupt?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s Altman Z-Score is 11.58, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Spotify Technology S.A. have a durable competitive advantage?
Spotify Technology S.A. scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is SPOT's return on equity (ROE)?
Spotify Technology S.A.'s return on equity is 31.9%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy SPOT stock?
SPOT shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol SPOT
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is SPOT a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Spotify Technology S.A. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Spotify Technology S.A.?
The current CEO of Spotify Technology S.A. is Mr. Alex Norström.
What is SPOT's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $12.39
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $19.25
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $13.06
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $16.40
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This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
최종 업데이트: 2026년 4월 22일. 데이터 소스: SEC EDGAR(재무제표), Yahoo Finance(시장 데이터, 애널리스트 컨센서스). 최근 분기 데이터가 반영되지 않았을 수 있습니다.