IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Computer Hardware
Is IonQ, Inc. a safe investment right now?
IonQ, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 5.22 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $54.00 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Could IonQ, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 5.22 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives IONQ's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3683 | 1.2 | 0.44 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.1817 | 1.4 | -0.25 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0965 | 3.3 | -0.32 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 8.8908 | 0.6 | 5.33 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.0198 | 1.0 | 0.02 |
How has IONQ's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 493.58 | Safe |
| 2023 | 213.38 | Safe |
| 2024 | 115.59 | Safe |
| 2025 | 5.22 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from IONQ's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is IonQ, Inc. actually worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $1.35 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals (1Q actual) + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $-1.82 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $0.33 | 13 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 168.4x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $67.64 (13 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does IonQ, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up IONQ's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is IONQ's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -15.1% | — |
| 2023 | -32.5% | Declining |
| 2024 | -60.6% | Declining |
| 2025 | -16.7% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is IonQ, Inc.'s dividend safe?
IonQ, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.1B | $0.0B | $0.0B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.5B | −$0.3B | −$0.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.3B | −$0.1B | −$0.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 40.4% | 52.2% | 73.6% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our IONQ analysis
IONQ earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $-0.30. Revenue estimate: $66.5M. Our current Fair Value: $54.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
IONQ analyst consensus: 85% bullish (11 of 13 analysts)
1 Strong Buy, 10 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $67.64 (3.0% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $54.00.
IONQ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ beat EPS estimates by 498.9%
Reported EPS: $2.07 vs estimate $-0.52. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $54.00 (17.8% below current price).
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ beat EPS estimates by 508.5%
Reported EPS: $1.93 vs estimate $-0.47. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $54.00 (17.8% below current price).
IONQ filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ missed EPS estimates by 713.6%
Reported EPS: $-3.58 vs estimate $-0.44. Our Fair Value of $54.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
IONQ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ missed EPS estimates by 139.3%
Reported EPS: $-0.70 vs estimate $-0.29. Our Fair Value of $54.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ beat EPS estimates by 52.5%
Reported EPS: $-0.14 vs estimate $-0.29. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $54.00 (17.8% below current price).
IONQ filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ missed EPS estimates by 185.8%
Reported EPS: $-0.34 vs estimate $-0.12. Our Fair Value of $54.00 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
IONQ filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
IONQ filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about IonQ, Inc.
What is IonQ, Inc. stock price today?
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) stock price is $65.66 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does IonQ, Inc. do?
IonQ, Inc. develops quantum computing systems in the United States, Switzerland, and Internationally. It sells access to quantum computers of various qubit capacities.
What is IonQ, Inc. market cap?
IonQ, Inc. has a market capitalization of $24.51B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is IONQ in?
IonQ, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Computer Hardware industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol IONQ.
Is IONQ stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, IonQ, Inc. trades 21.6% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $54.00
- Current Price: $65.66
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is IONQ stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 13 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for IonQ, Inc. is $67.64, implying upside of 3.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $100.00
- Analyst Low Target: $44.78
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is IonQ, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for IonQ, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 106.7%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 118.1%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 44.7%
- EPS growth (next year est.): -818.0%
What are IonQ, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.1B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.3B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 40.4% | Declining |
What is IONQ's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 168.4x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): -63.0x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is IONQ stock?
IonQ, Inc. has a beta of 3.05, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does IonQ, Inc. have?
IonQ, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.03B
- Total Debt: $30.4M
- Net Cash Position: $2.00B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is IonQ, Inc.'s free cash flow?
IonQ, Inc. generated $-91.4M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $-401.2M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does IonQ, Inc. pay a dividend?
IonQ, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is IonQ, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
IonQ, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 5.22, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does IonQ, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
IonQ, Inc. scores 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is IONQ's return on equity (ROE)?
IonQ, Inc.'s return on equity is 11.3%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy IONQ stock?
IONQ shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol IONQ
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is IONQ a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies IonQ, Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of IonQ, Inc.?
The current CEO of IonQ, Inc. is Mr. Niccolo Mcleod de Masi.
What is IONQ's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $0.39
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $-1.04
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $0.33
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $-2.37
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Jun 3, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
IONQ analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings