BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Information Technology Services
Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. a safe investment right now?
Trading at $3.79, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) in the Technology sector does not have sufficient data for a reliable fair value estimate. With an Altman Z-Score of 1.71, the company sits in the distress zone — bankruptcy risk is elevated and warrants close monitoring. Our moat rating stands at 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat), suggesting limited pricing power in a competitive landscape.
Could BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 1.71 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives BBAI's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.1621 | 1.2 | 0.19 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.9676 | 1.4 | -1.35 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.3326 | 3.3 | -1.1 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 6.3827 | 0.6 | 3.83 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.1427 | 1.0 | 0.14 |
How has BBAI's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.23 | Gray |
| 2023 | 2.76 | Gray |
| 2024 | -1.73 | Distress |
| 2025 | 1.71 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from BBAI's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
What is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. actually worth?
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up BBAI's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is BBAI's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -57.0% | — |
| 2023 | -36.1% | Rising |
| 2024 | -203.9% | Declining |
| 2025 | -41.4% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s dividend safe?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.1B | $0.2B | $0.2B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$0.3B | −$0.3B | −$0.1B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.0B | −$0.0B | −$0.0B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 22.3% | 28.6% | 27.7% | Declining |
Common questions about BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 1.71 places it in the distress zone. This metric uses balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within 2 years. A score below 1.8 signals distress, while above 3.0 indicates safety.
Why is there no fair value estimate for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.?
A reliable fair value estimate requires stable, positive free cash flow or earnings data. This stock may lack sufficient data, or it may be classified as speculative where traditional valuation does not apply.
Does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. have a competitive moat?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. receives a moat rating of 2.3 out of 5 stars, based on ROIC stability, gross margin trends, and estimated switching costs. A rating above 3.5 suggests a durable competitive advantage.
Does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. pay a dividend?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend, or has suspended its dividend. Check the dividend safety section for the latest status.
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Apr 20, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
BBAI analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings