Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Computer Hardware
Is Seagate Technology Holdings PLC a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) stock is $906.00, versus a market price of $973.44 — Fairly Valued. Predicted EPS $22.65 x 40.0 Fair PE.
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC's Altman Z-Score of 18.92 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $906.00 (Fairly Valued). Moat rating: 3.7/5 stars.
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC is part of the AI Memory & Storage group in our AI coverage — compare its fair value against every other AI, cloud, and quantum stock through a value investing lens.
Could Seagate Technology Holdings PLC go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 18.92 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives STX's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.21 | 1.2 | 0.25 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.5928 | 1.4 | -0.83 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.3985 | 3.3 | 1.32 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 28.2671 | 0.6 | 16.96 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 1.2229 | 1.0 | 1.22 |
How has STX's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 14.46 | Safe |
| 2024 | 13.93 | Safe |
| 2025 | 16.23 | Safe |
| 2026 | 18.92 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from STX's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $22.65 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $13.90 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $35.78 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 70.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $1,115.87 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Seagate Technology Holdings PLC have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 3.7/5.
What makes up STX's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is STX's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -4.3% | — |
| 2024 | 18.6% | Rising |
| 2025 | 40.4% | Rising |
| 2026 | 60.0% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Seagate Technology Holdings PLC's dividend safe?
Can Seagate Technology Holdings PLC afford its dividend?
Payout ratio is 21.1%. FCF covers the dividend 1.1x. 23 consecutive years of payments.
US dividend withholding tax of 30% applies to non-US tax residents. This rate may be reduced under a tax treaty between the US and your country of residence. The adjusted yield shown assumes the default 30% rate. For informational purposes only — consult a qualified tax advisor.
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.2B | $9.1B | $7.4B | Rising |
| Net Income | $3.2B | $1.5B | −$0.5B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.1B | $0.8B | $0.6B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 45.6% | 35.2% | 18.3% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our STX analysis
STX earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $7.35. Revenue estimate: $4.12B. Our current Fair Value: $906.00 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
STX analyst consensus: 88% bullish (22 of 25 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $1115.87 (14.6% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $906.00.
STX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX beat EPS estimates by 12.1%
Reported EPS: $5.71 vs estimate $5.09. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $906.00 (6.9% below current price).
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX paid $0.7400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.1%.
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX beat EPS estimates by 16.8%
Reported EPS: $4.10 vs estimate $3.51. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $906.00 (6.9% below current price).
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX paid $0.7400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.1%.
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX beat EPS estimates by 9.6%
Reported EPS: $3.11 vs estimate $2.84. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $906.00 (6.9% below current price).
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX paid $0.7400/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.1%.
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX beat EPS estimates by 8.8%
Reported EPS: $2.61 vs estimate $2.40. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $906.00 (6.9% below current price).
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX paid $0.7200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.1%.
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX beat EPS estimates by 6.0%
Reported EPS: $2.59 vs estimate $2.44. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $906.00 (6.9% below current price).
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX paid $0.7200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.1%.
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX beat EPS estimates by 9.2%
Reported EPS: $1.90 vs estimate $1.74. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $906.00 (6.9% below current price).
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX paid $0.7200/share dividend
Dividend Safety Grade: A. Payout ratio: 21.1%.
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
STX beat EPS estimates by 8.1%
Reported EPS: $2.03 vs estimate $1.88. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $906.00 (6.9% below current price).
STX filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Seagate Technology Holdings PLC
What is Seagate Technology Holdings PLC stock price today?
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) stock price is $973.44 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Seagate Technology Holdings PLC do?
Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in providing data storage solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. It offers External and internal hard drives; external and internal solid-state drives (SSDs); enterprise hard drives and SSDs; data storage systems; network attached storage (NAS) hard drives; video and analytics hard drives; and hyperscale and cloud solution. It offers its products for Healthcare, Media & Entertainment, Surveillance & Security, and telecommunication industry.
What is Seagate Technology Holdings PLC market cap?
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC has a market capitalization of $220.62B, classifying it as a mega-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is STX in?
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Computer Hardware industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol STX.
Is STX stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC trades 7.4% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $906.00
- Current Price: $973.44
- Valuation Zone: Fairly Valued
What is STX stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Seagate Technology Holdings PLC is $1115.87, implying upside of 14.6% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $1600.00
- Analyst Low Target: $700.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Seagate Technology Holdings PLC revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Seagate Technology Holdings PLC:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 54.2%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 129.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 33.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 54.8%
What are Seagate Technology Holdings PLC's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $3.2B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.1B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 45.6% | Rising |
What is STX's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 70.0x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 17.6x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is STX stock?
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC has a beta of 2.10, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Seagate Technology Holdings PLC have?
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.70B
- Total Debt: $3.90B
- Net Cash Position: $-2.19B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Seagate Technology Holdings PLC's free cash flow?
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC generated $1.94B in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $3.67B in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Seagate Technology Holdings PLC pay a dividend, and is it safe?
Yes, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC pays a regular dividend. Here are the key metrics:
- Dividend Yield: 0.3%
- Payout Ratio: 21.1%
- Consecutive Years Paid: 23
- 5-Year Dividend Growth: -11.4%
- FairValueLabs Safety Grade: A
Is Seagate Technology Holdings PLC at risk of going bankrupt?
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC's Altman Z-Score is 18.92, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Seagate Technology Holdings PLC have a durable competitive advantage?
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC scores 3.7/5 stars (Solid moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 4/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is STX's return on equity (ROE)?
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC's return on equity is 371.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy STX stock?
STX shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol STX
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is STX a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Seagate Technology Holdings PLC as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Seagate Technology Holdings PLC?
The current CEO of Seagate Technology Holdings PLC is Dr. William David Mosley Ph.D..
What is STX's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $13.91
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $55.37
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $35.78
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $55.37
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
STX analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings