Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NMS · Technology · Communication Equipment
Is Lumentum Holdings Inc. a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) stock is $1148.30, versus a market price of $926.14 — Watch — Analyst Anchor. Analyst Consensus (24 analysts) — EPS model not applicable at negative earnings.
Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of 16.33 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $1148.30 (Watch — Analyst Anchor). Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is part of the Optical Modules & Interconnect — the Data-Center Nervous System group in our AI coverage — compare its fair value against every other AI, cloud, and quantum stock through a value investing lens.
Could Lumentum Holdings Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 16.33 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives LITE's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.314 | 1.2 | 0.38 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.2041 | 1.4 | -0.29 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.0355 | 3.3 | -0.12 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 26.607 | 0.6 | 15.96 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3899 | 1.0 | 0.39 |
How has LITE's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22.84 | Safe |
| 2023 | 15.81 | Safe |
| 2024 | 16.67 | Safe |
| 2025 | 16.33 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from LITE's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Trailing P/E | 0.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 0.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | N/A | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $1,148.30 (24 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Lumentum Holdings Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up LITE's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is LITE's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8.4% | — |
| 2023 | -1.6% | Declining |
| 2024 | -10.8% | Declining |
| 2025 | -4.0% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s dividend safe?
Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.7B | Stable |
| Net Income | $0.0B | −$0.5B | $0.2B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.1B | −$0.1B | $0.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 28.0% | 18.5% | 46.1% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our LITE analysis
LITE earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $2.97. Revenue estimate: $987.7M. Our current Fair Value: $1148.30 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
LITE analyst consensus: 83% bullish (20 of 24 analysts)
5 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 4 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $1148.30 (24.0% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $1148.30.
LITE beat EPS estimates by 8.8%
Reported EPS: $3.23 vs estimate $2.97. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1148.30 (24.0% above current price).
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE beat EPS estimates by 4.6%
Reported EPS: $2.37 vs estimate $2.27. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1148.30 (24.0% above current price).
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE beat EPS estimates by 18.6%
Reported EPS: $1.67 vs estimate $1.41. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1148.30 (24.0% above current price).
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE beat EPS estimates by 7.0%
Reported EPS: $1.10 vs estimate $1.03. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1148.30 (24.0% above current price).
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE beat EPS estimates by 8.9%
Reported EPS: $0.88 vs estimate $0.81. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1148.30 (24.0% above current price).
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE beat EPS estimates by 13.7%
Reported EPS: $0.57 vs estimate $0.50. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1148.30 (24.0% above current price).
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE beat EPS estimates by 17.0%
Reported EPS: $0.42 vs estimate $0.36. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $1148.30 (24.0% above current price).
LITE filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
LITE filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Lumentum Holdings Inc.
What is Lumentum Holdings Inc. stock price today?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) stock price is $926.14 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Lumentum Holdings Inc. do?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. It operates through two segments, Cloud & Networking and Industrial Tech.
What is Lumentum Holdings Inc. market cap?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. has a market capitalization of $82.06B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is LITE in?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Communication Equipment industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol LITE.
Is LITE stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Lumentum Holdings Inc. trades 19.4% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $1148.30
- Current Price: $926.14
- Valuation Zone: Watch — Analyst Anchor
What is LITE stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 24 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Lumentum Holdings Inc. is $1148.30, implying upside of 24.0% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $1400.00
- Analyst Low Target: $820.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Lumentum Holdings Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Lumentum Holdings Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 82.0%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 0.0%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 49.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 301.3%
What are Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | Stable |
| Net Income | $0.0B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.1B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 28.0% | Declining |
What is LITE's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 28.1x
How volatile is LITE stock?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. has a beta of 1.51, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Lumentum Holdings Inc. have?
Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $2.74B
- Total Debt: $1.67B
- Net Cash Position: $1.07B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
Does Lumentum Holdings Inc. pay a dividend?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Lumentum Holdings Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is 16.33, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Lumentum Holdings Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Lumentum Holdings Inc. scores 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is LITE's return on equity (ROE)?
Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s return on equity is -240.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy LITE stock?
LITE shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol LITE
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is LITE a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Lumentum Holdings Inc. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Lumentum Holdings Inc.?
The current CEO of Lumentum Holdings Inc. is Mr. Michael E. Hurlston.
What is LITE's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-92.97
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $33.01
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $8.23
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $33.01
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
LITE analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings