Coherent Corp. (COHR) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Scientific & Technical Instruments
Is Coherent Corp. a safe investment right now?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Coherent Corp. (COHR) stock is $249.60, versus a market price of $287.81 — Overvalued. Predicted EPS $6.24 x 40.0 Fair PE.
Coherent Corp.'s Altman Z-Score of 5.74 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $249.60 (Overvalued). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Coherent Corp. is part of the Optical Modules & Interconnect — the Data-Center Nervous System group in our AI coverage — compare its fair value against every other AI, cloud, and quantum stock through a value investing lens.
Could Coherent Corp. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 5.74 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives COHR's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.2225 | 1.2 | 0.27 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | 0.074 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | 0.0567 | 3.3 | 0.19 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 7.9815 | 0.6 | 4.79 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.389 | 1.0 | 0.39 |
How has COHR's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5.86 | Safe |
| 2024 | 5.78 | Safe |
| 2025 | 5.95 | Safe |
| 2026 | 5.74 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from COHR's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Coherent Corp. Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
That gap between price and value is the whole point — it is why a margin of safety matters, and it is why we publish the inputs rather than a verdict. If you want the mechanics, see our intrinsic value method; for the original statement of the method, see Security Analysis, the 1934 original.
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $6.24 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Last Year EPS | $4.12 | Annual report (SEC EDGAR) |
| Analyst Consensus EPS (This Year) | $9.42 | 23 analysts consensus |
| Trailing P/E | 69.9x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 40.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | Accelerating | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $412.52 (23 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Coherent Corp. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
A moat rating means little without the definition behind it — read why a durable competitive advantage matters before you lean on this score. It falls short of our 3.5-star wide-moat bar — see browse wide-moat rated companies for the companies that clear it.
What makes up COHR's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is COHR's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -0.8% | — |
| 2024 | 1.5% | Rising |
| 2025 | 3.6% | Rising |
| 2026 | 7.3% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Coherent Corp.'s dividend safe?
Coherent Corp.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.1B | $5.8B | $5.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.8B | $0.0B | −$0.3B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$1.0B | $0.2B | $0.2B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 37.5% | 35.2% | 31.4% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our COHR analysis
COHR earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $1.96. Revenue estimate: $2.30B. Our current Fair Value: $249.60 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
COHR analyst consensus: 79% bullish (19 of 24 analysts)
4 Strong Buy, 15 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $412.52 (43.3% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $249.60.
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR beat EPS estimates by 7.6%
Reported EPS: $1.74 vs estimate $1.62. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $249.60 (13.3% below current price).
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR beat EPS estimates by 1.1%
Reported EPS: $1.41 vs estimate $1.39. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $249.60 (13.3% below current price).
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR beat EPS estimates by 6.8%
Reported EPS: $1.29 vs estimate $1.21. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $249.60 (13.3% below current price).
COHR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR beat EPS estimates by 11.3%
Reported EPS: $1.16 vs estimate $1.04. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $249.60 (13.3% below current price).
COHR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR beat EPS estimates by 8.7%
Reported EPS: $1.00 vs estimate $0.92. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $249.60 (13.3% below current price).
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR beat EPS estimates by 6.2%
Reported EPS: $0.91 vs estimate $0.86. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $249.60 (13.3% below current price).
COHR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR beat EPS estimates by 41.0%
Reported EPS: $0.95 vs estimate $0.67. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $249.60 (13.3% below current price).
COHR filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
COHR filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Coherent Corp.
What is Coherent Corp. stock price today?
Coherent Corp. (COHR) stock price is $287.81 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does Coherent Corp. do?
Coherent Corp. develops, manufactures, and markets lasers, transceivers, other optical and optoelectronic devices, modules, and systems worldwide. Its products include critical components consisting of detectors, passive optics, thermal solutions, and PICS; silicon photonics and other advanced optical technologies; and coherent transmission components, transport products, optical amplifiers, passive optical components, optical line systems, and multi-rail platform.
What is Coherent Corp. market cap?
Coherent Corp. has a market capitalization of $56.36B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is COHR in?
Coherent Corp. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Scientific & Technical Instruments industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol COHR.
Is COHR stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Coherent Corp. trades 15.3% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $249.60
- Current Price: $287.81
- Valuation Zone: Overvalued
What is COHR stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 23 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Coherent Corp. is $412.52, implying upside of 43.3% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $500.00
- Analyst Low Target: $280.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Coherent Corp. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Coherent Corp.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 49.3%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 67.9%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 38.8%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 49.1%
What are Coherent Corp.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.1B | Rising |
| Net Income | $0.8B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$1.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 37.5% | Rising |
What is COHR's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Trailing P/E (last 12 months): 69.9x
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 20.5x
- FairValueLabs Fair P/E: 40.0x
How volatile is COHR stock?
Coherent Corp. has a beta of 2.10, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Coherent Corp. have?
Coherent Corp.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $1.99B
- Total Debt: $3.55B
- Net Cash Position: $-1.56B
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Coherent Corp.'s free cash flow?
Coherent Corp. generated $-650.0M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $79.5M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Coherent Corp. pay a dividend?
Coherent Corp. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Coherent Corp. at risk of going bankrupt?
Coherent Corp.'s Altman Z-Score is 5.74, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Coherent Corp. have a durable competitive advantage?
Coherent Corp. scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is COHR's return on equity (ROE)?
Coherent Corp.'s return on equity is 8.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy COHR stock?
COHR shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol COHR
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is COHR a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Coherent Corp. as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Coherent Corp.?
The current CEO of Coherent Corp. is Mr. James Robert Anderson.
What is COHR's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $4.12
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $14.05
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $9.42
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $14.05
Other Technology companies analyzed by FairValueLabs
FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Sep 29, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
COHR analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings