C3.ai, Inc. (AI) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NYQ · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Is C3.ai, Inc. a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for C3.ai, Inc. (AI) stock is $8.82, versus a market price of $9.93 — Watch — Analyst Anchor. Analyst Consensus (11 analysts) — EPS model not applicable at negative earnings.
C3.ai, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score of -3.95 places it in the distress zone. Our fair value estimate is $8.82 (Watch — Analyst Anchor). Moat rating: 2.3/5 stars.
C3.ai, Inc. is part of the AI Software, Data & Security group in our AI coverage — compare its fair value against every other AI, cloud, and quantum stock through a value investing lens.
Could C3.ai, Inc. go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of -3.95 falls below the 1.8 distress threshold, indicating significant financial stress.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives AI's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.7368 | 1.2 | 0.88 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -2.2652 | 1.4 | -3.17 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.5974 | 3.3 | -1.97 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.3066 | 1.0 | 0.31 |
How has AI's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -0.84 | Distress |
| 2024 | -1.26 | Distress |
| 2025 | -1.64 | Distress |
| 2026 | -3.95 | Distress |
Source: Calculated from AI's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
C3.ai, Inc. Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Trailing P/E | 0.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 0.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | N/A | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $8.82 (11 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does C3.ai, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.3/5.
What makes up AI's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is AI's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -31.2% | — |
| 2024 | -36.4% | Declining |
| 2025 | -38.7% | Declining |
| 2026 | -74.6% | Declining |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is C3.ai, Inc.'s dividend safe?
C3.ai, Inc.'s key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.3B | $0.4B | $0.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$0.5B | −$0.3B | −$0.3B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.2B | −$0.0B | −$0.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 30.9% | 60.6% | 67.6% | Declining |
Recent events that affect our AI analysis
AI earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $-0.25. Revenue estimate: $52.1M. Our current Fair Value: $8.82 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AI analyst consensus: 7% bullish (1 of 14 analysts)
0 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 7 Hold, 3 Sell, 3 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $8.82 (11.2% downside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $8.82.
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI beat EPS estimates by 11.5%
Reported EPS: $-0.33 vs estimate $-0.37. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $8.82 (11.2% below current price).
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI missed EPS estimates by 38.3%
Reported EPS: $-0.40 vs estimate $-0.29. Our Fair Value of $8.82 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI beat EPS estimates by 24.8%
Reported EPS: $-0.25 vs estimate $-0.33. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $8.82 (11.2% below current price).
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI missed EPS estimates by 75.3%
Reported EPS: $-0.37 vs estimate $-0.21. Our Fair Value of $8.82 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI beat EPS estimates by 20.4%
Reported EPS: $-0.16 vs estimate $-0.20. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $8.82 (11.2% below current price).
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AI beat EPS estimates by 52.0%
Reported EPS: $-0.12 vs estimate $-0.25. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $8.82 (11.2% below current price).
AI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about C3.ai, Inc.
What is C3.ai, Inc. stock price today?
C3.ai, Inc. (AI) stock price is $9.93 as of the latest market close, traded on the NYSE exchange.
What does C3.ai, Inc. do?
C3.ai, Inc. operates as an enterprise artificial intelligence application software company in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It offers C3 agentic AI platform, an application development and runtime environment that enables customers to design, develop, and deploy enterprise AI applications; C3 AI Studio, an integrated development environment in the C3 Agentic AI Platform that enables engineers, data scientists, and business analysts to design, build, test, and deploy AI applications; C3 AI Applications, a portfolio of industry-specific enterprise AI applications that enables the digital transformation of organizations globally; and C3 Generative AI, a library of agentic AI applications to retrieve data, analyze information, surface insights, and orchestrate workflows.
What sector and industry is AI in?
C3.ai, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Software - Infrastructure industry. It trades on the NYSE under the ticker symbol AI.
Is AI stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, C3.ai, Inc. trades 12.6% above our fair value estimate — potentially overvalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $8.82
- Current Price: $9.93
- Valuation Zone: Watch — Analyst Anchor
What is AI stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for C3.ai, Inc. is $8.82, implying downside of 11.2% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $15.00
- Analyst Low Target: $6.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is C3.ai, Inc. revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for C3.ai, Inc.:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): -10.4%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 41.7%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 10.0%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 42.8%
What are C3.ai, Inc.'s key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.3B | Declining |
| Net Income | −$0.5B | Declining |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.2B | Rising |
| Gross Margin | 30.9% | Declining |
What is AI's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): -22.0x
How volatile is AI stock?
C3.ai, Inc. has a beta of 2.07, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does C3.ai, Inc. have?
C3.ai, Inc.'s balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $575.4M
- Total Debt: $58.7M
- Net Cash Position: $516.8M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is C3.ai, Inc.'s free cash flow?
C3.ai, Inc. generated $-26.5M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $-190.2M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does C3.ai, Inc. pay a dividend?
C3.ai, Inc. does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is C3.ai, Inc. at risk of going bankrupt?
C3.ai, Inc.'s Altman Z-Score is -3.95, placing it in the distress zone (below 1.8) — elevated bankruptcy risk. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does C3.ai, Inc. have a durable competitive advantage?
C3.ai, Inc. scores 2.3/5 stars (Weak moat) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 2/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is AI's return on equity (ROE)?
C3.ai, Inc.'s return on equity is -63.0%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy AI stock?
AI shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NYSE. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AI
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AI a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies C3.ai, Inc. as Pure Speculation. It lacks the financial stability or valuation margin typically required for value investing. This stock is considered high risk.
Who is the CEO of C3.ai, Inc.?
The current CEO of C3.ai, Inc. is Mr. Thomas M. Siebel.
What is AI's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-3.35
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $-0.45
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $-0.79
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $-0.45
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AI analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings