Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock (AAOI) Stock Analysis — Fair Value, Risk & Moat Rating
NGM · Technology · Communication Equipment
Is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock a safe investment right now?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our estimated fair value (intrinsic value) for Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock (AAOI) stock is $163.40, versus a market price of $150.28 — Watch — Analyst Anchor. Analyst Consensus (5 analysts) — EPS model not applicable at negative earnings.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock's Altman Z-Score of 17.66 places it in the safe zone. Our fair value estimate is $163.40 (Watch — Analyst Anchor). Moat rating: 2.9/5 stars.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock is part of the Optical Modules & Interconnect — the Data-Center Nervous System group in our AI coverage — compare its fair value against every other AI, cloud, and quantum stock through a value investing lens.
Could Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock go bankrupt? Altman Z-Score analysis
Z-Score of 17.66 is above 3.0, indicating the company is financially healthy by this metric.
- Below 1.8 — Distress Zone (high bankruptcy risk)
- 1.8 to 3.0 — Gray Zone (elevated uncertainty)
- Above 3.0 — Safe Zone (financially healthy)
What drives AAOI's Z-Score?
| Component | Formula | Value | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A · Working Capital / Total Assets | WC / TA | 0.3581 | 1.2 | 0.43 |
| B · Retained Earnings / Total Assets | RE / TA | -0.4194 | 1.4 | -0.59 |
| C · EBIT / Total Assets | EBIT / TA | -0.037 | 3.3 | -0.12 |
| D · Market Cap / Total Liabilities | MCap / TL | 29.2495 | 0.6 | 17.55 |
| E · Revenue / Total Assets | Rev / TA | 0.39 | 1.0 | 0.39 |
How has AAOI's financial health changed over time?
| Year | Z-Score | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 33.58 | Safe |
| 2023 | 43.2 | Safe |
| 2024 | 22.49 | Safe |
| 2025 | 17.66 | Safe |
Source: Calculated from AAOI's latest 10-K filing on SEC EDGAR.
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value & Intrinsic Value — What Is It Actually Worth?
How we calculated this
| Input | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Predicted EPS (α) | $0.00 | Proprietary blend of reported actuals + analyst consensus, weighted by α |
| Trailing P/E | 0.0x | Current market pricing |
| Fair P/E (β discount) | 0.0x | Trailing PE adjusted by value discount factor β, hard-capped |
| Earnings Trend (γ) | N/A | Directional signal: predicted vs trailing EPS |
Wall Street Reference: Analyst consensus target price is $163.40 (5 analysts). This is shown for reference only and is not used in our valuation model.
Source: Earnings data from SEC EDGAR filings. Market data via Yahoo Finance.
Does Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock have a durable competitive advantage?
Moat rating: 2.9/5.
What makes up AAOI's moat score?
ROIC Stability
ROIC variability over the past decade. Score: 2/5.
Gross Margin Trend
Gross margin trajectory over the past decade. Score: 4/5.
Switching Costs
Estimated customer lock-in based on margin level. Score: 3/5.
How stable is AAOI's return on invested capital?
| Year | ROIC | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -18.0% | — |
| 2023 | -14.1% | Rising |
| 2024 | -43.9% | Declining |
| 2025 | -4.6% | Rising |
Source: ROIC calculated from SEC EDGAR filings.
Is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock's dividend safe?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock's key financial metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1Y Ago | 3Y Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | $0.2B | $0.2B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.0B | −$0.2B | −$0.1B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.4B | −$0.1B | −$0.0B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 30.0% | 24.8% | 15.1% | Rising |
Recent events that affect our AAOI analysis
AAOI earnings report scheduled
Upcoming report. Consensus EPS estimate: $0.14. Revenue estimate: $268.1M. Our current Fair Value: $163.40 — a significant beat or miss could shift this estimate.
AAOI analyst consensus: 50% bullish (3 of 6 analysts)
2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. Consensus target: $163.40 (8.7% upside). Compare with our independent Fair Value: $163.40.
AAOI beat EPS estimates by 300.0%
Reported EPS: $0.06 vs estimate $0.02. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $163.40 (8.7% above current price).
AAOI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI missed EPS estimates by 44.8%
Reported EPS: $-0.07 vs estimate $-0.05. Our Fair Value of $163.40 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AAOI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI beat EPS estimates by 91.1%
Reported EPS: $-0.01 vs estimate $-0.11. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $163.40 (8.7% above current price).
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI missed EPS estimates by 2.3%
Reported EPS: $-0.09 vs estimate $-0.09. Our Fair Value of $163.40 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AAOI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI missed EPS estimates by 116.2%
Reported EPS: $-0.16 vs estimate $-0.07. Our Fair Value of $163.40 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AAOI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI beat EPS estimates by 46.7%
Reported EPS: $-0.02 vs estimate $-0.04. Earnings strength supports our Fair Value of $163.40 (8.7% above current price).
AAOI filed quarterly report (10-Q)
Quarterly update with interim financials. May signal changes to earnings trajectory and balance sheet health. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI filed annual report (10-K)
Annual filing with full-year financials. Our Altman Z-Score, Moat, and Fair Value models are derived from this data. View on SEC EDGAR →
AAOI missed EPS estimates by 14.3%
Reported EPS: $-0.02 vs estimate $-0.02. Our Fair Value of $163.40 may face downward pressure if the trend continues.
AAOI filed 8-K (material event)
8-K filings disclose material events — acquisitions, leadership changes, or guidance revisions that may affect valuation. View on SEC EDGAR →
Common questions about Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock
What is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock stock price today?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock (AAOI) stock price is $150.28 as of the latest market close, traded on the NASDAQ exchange.
What does Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock do?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of fiber-optic networking products in the United States, Taiwan, and China. It offers optical modules, optical filters, lasers, laser components, subassemblies, transmitters and transceivers, turn-key equipment, headend, node, and distribution equipment, as well as amplifiers.
What is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock market cap?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock has a market capitalization of $12.71B, classifying it as a large-cap stock in the Technology sector.
What sector and industry is AAOI in?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock operates in the Technology sector, specifically within the Communication Equipment industry. It trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol AAOI.
Is AAOI stock overvalued or undervalued?
Based on our valuation model, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock trades 8.0% below our fair value estimate — potentially undervalued.
- FairValueLabs Fair Value: $163.40
- Current Price: $150.28
- Valuation Zone: Watch — Analyst Anchor
What is AAOI stock forecast and analyst target price?
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts, the consensus price target for Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock is $163.40, implying upside of 8.7% from the current price.
- Analyst High Target: $220.00
- Analyst Low Target: $109.00
Note: Analyst targets are shown for reference and are not used in our valuation model.
Is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock revenue and earnings growing?
Here are the analyst consensus growth estimates for Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock:
- Revenue growth (current year est.): 127.9%
- EPS growth (current year est.): 361.5%
- Revenue growth (next year est.): 156.5%
- EPS growth (next year est.): 576.8%
What are Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock's key financial metrics?
| Metric | Latest | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.5B | Rising |
| Net Income | −$0.0B | Rising |
| Free Cash Flow | −$0.4B | Declining |
| Gross Margin | 30.0% | Rising |
What is AAOI's P/E ratio?
The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors pay per dollar of earnings:
- Forward P/E (next 12 months est.): 32.7x
How volatile is AAOI stock?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock has a beta of 3.79, meaning it is significantly more volatile than the broader market. A beta above 1.0 indicates higher price swings relative to the S&P 500, while below 1.0 suggests more stability.
How much cash and debt does Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock have?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock's balance sheet shows:
- Total Cash: $499.7M
- Total Debt: $300.1M
- Net Cash Position: $199.6M
A positive net cash position means the company holds more cash than debt, reducing financial risk.
What is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock's free cash flow?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock generated $-887.1M in trailing twelve-month free cash flow (from $-131.8M in operating cash flow). Free cash flow represents the cash available for dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction after all capital expenditures.
Does Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock pay a dividend?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock does not currently pay a regular dividend to shareholders. The company may be reinvesting all profits back into growth, or it may have suspended its dividend.
Is Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock at risk of going bankrupt?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock's Altman Z-Score is 17.66, placing it in the safe zone (above 3.0) — bankruptcy risk is low. The Z-Score uses five balance sheet ratios to predict bankruptcy probability within two years.
Does Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock have a durable competitive advantage?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock scores 2.9/5 stars (Narrow moat · eroding) in our moat analysis:
- ROIC Stability: 2/5
- Gross Margin Trend: 4/5
- Switching Costs: 3/5
A score above 3.5 suggests meaningful pricing power and a defensible market position.
What is AAOI's return on equity (ROE)?
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock's return on equity is -5.5%. ROE measures how efficiently a company generates profits from shareholder equity. An ROE above 15% is generally considered strong, while below 10% may signal inefficiency.
How do I buy AAOI stock?
AAOI shares can be purchased through any brokerage account that provides access to the NASDAQ. Common steps:
- Open an account with a broker (e.g., Fidelity, Schwab, Interactive Brokers)
- Search for ticker symbol AAOI
- Place a market or limit order for your desired number of shares
This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before buying any stock.
Is AAOI a value stock or speculative?
FairValueLabs classifies Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock as Value-Speculation. It has some value characteristics but carries elevated risk factors that make it speculative. Extra due diligence is recommended.
Who is the CEO of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock?
The current CEO of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. Common Stock is Dr. Chih-Hsiang Lin Ph.D..
What is AAOI's earnings per share (EPS)?
Earnings per share measures the company's profit allocated to each outstanding share:
- Trailing EPS (last 12 months): $-0.77
- Forward EPS (next 12 months est.): $4.60
- Analyst consensus EPS (this year): $0.68
- Analyst consensus EPS (next year): $4.60
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FairValueLabs Disclaimer
All valuations, scores, ratings, and classifications on this page are produced by the FairValueLabs internal valuation system. They do not represent actual market value, guaranteed outcomes, or professional investment advice. These are analytical estimates for educational and research purposes only.
This is not financial advice. All data is sourced from SEC EDGAR public filings. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026. Data sources: SEC EDGAR (financial statements), Yahoo Finance (market data, analyst consensus). Data may not reflect the most recent quarter.
AAOI analysis methodology: How we calculate fair value, Z-Scores, and moat ratings